Arsenal Win League: A Nation Mourns

The response to Arsenal winning the Premier League for the first time in 22 years has been predictably partisan. To mangle Tolstoy's famous line about families, fans of the club have been happy in pretty much the same way while those unhappy about the outcome have exhibited a lot more variety in their discontent. While I am firmly in the former camp - generically relieved we got over the line and happy for the players, staff and fellow fans - it is the latter that are of real interest because the variety of their views tell us a lot more about the state of the game, and arguably the country. Arsenal have been accused of being boring, of being lucky with refereeing and VAR decisions, of time-wasting, of being too physical at corners and generally of taking it all too seriously, which is nothing if not ironic. They apparently stank out the Champions League Final in Budapest by stopping Paris St Germain from exhibiting the full range of their balletic skills. Mikel Arteta has personally killed the beautiful game, has despoiled the sanctity of the technical area and has generally been insufferable with his Lego hair and motivational gimmicks.

Hating Arsenal isn't new. The club's contested move from Woolwich to Islington in 1913 and its controversial promotion to Division One in 1919 at the expense of Tottenham Hotspur (among others), both engineered by Chairman Henry Norris, obviously explains the roots of their chief local rivalry. More interesting is how quickly Arsenal riled everybody else, first by spending big - they were known as the Bank of England club in the 1920s - and then by dominating the top division during the 1930s under Herbert Chapman with innovative tactics on the field and innovative marketing off it, notably renaming Gillespie Road Tube station. I'm not going to recap Arsenal's history from then till now, but suffice to say it went through many iterations and corresponding periods of fluctuating fortune. What was consistent was the club's willingness to reinvent itself stylistically, its faith in unconventional managers, and the premium it placed on coaching. Compare and contrast George Graham and Arsene Wenger's teams. Consider the promotion to manager of George Allison (a journalist) and Bertie Mee (a physio). Consider the crucial roles of Tom Whittaker and Don Howe.

Mikel Arteta is a typical Arsenal manager: unproven when hired, having a strong identification with the club's values (as he interprets them), and having a highly systematic approach, both on the pitch and off it. Nicolas Jover may be a figure of fun for many opposition fans and pundits, but that's because he has been unusually successful, not because other teams don't have set-piece coaches. Arsenal have just done many things better than other clubs, not only in the Premier League but in the Champions League as well. It's easy to forget after Saturday's final that not only did Arsenal win the league phase without dropping a point, but they didn't lose a knockout game in normal time: won 11, drew 4, lost 0. They scored 30 (an average of 2 a game) and conceded 7 (under 0.5). The final was obviously a contrast in styles of play, as expected, but it is silly to reduce this to the claim that only PSG wanted to play football - a tired old trope of unimaginative pundits - and that what Arsenal offered was somehow "anti-football". Arsenal were never going to try and emulate PSG's semi-fnal first leg against Bayern Munich, and neither were PSG.

What's interesting about criticisms of Arsenal is that they can easily accomodate variations in style, and have done from Chapman's day onwards. Thus late-era Wengerball could be praised for its beauty while the team was derided as lightweight and lacking courage on a wet winter night up against Stoke's muscular midfield (the clubs's long wait between titles was punctuated for many fans by a series of unpunished GBH assaults: Diaby, Eduardo, Ramsey). Bertie Mee's double-winning team might appear the antithesis of this, but they would also be condemned for their dour pragmatism, grinding out an FA Cup semi-final replay win against the artistry of Stoke. This is why the perennial criticism of the club oscillates between "boring" and "lucky": the one to describe a team that overpowers its oppponents, the other to describe a team that nicks a win. Both are really claims that Arsenal are somehow inauthentic, as is the "anti-football" trope, which ultimately goes back to that relocation north of the river. 

This concern over authenticity also explains the negative reaction of many to the sight of Arsenal fans flooding the streets around the Emirates Stadium on the night the title was clinched and Sunday's victory parade around Islington. What was made clear over the last fortinight was the enormous support that Arsenal enjoys not only across London but across the world. The club's history meant that it always retained strong support in South East London, which was reinforced down the years by the recruitment of players like David Rocastle (Lewisham) and Ian Wright (Brockley). It also became the favourite club of European refugees in the 1930s (it actually has more Jewish fans than Spurs), and of Irish and West Indian immigrants in the postwar years, which pushed its support out to West and South London. Arsenal's popularity also reflected its accessibility, both in the sense of the lack of intolerance towards minority fans and in its convenient location for two Tube lines (it was easier to get from Brixton to Highbury on public transport than it was to get to Stamford Bridge, even before the national Front started recruiting in the Shed End). Arsenal is the only truly pan-metropolitan club. 

Its periodic success and dramatic victories (the 1971 double, the 1989 win at Anfield etc) during the era of televised football meant it acquired fans across the country, while the global reach of the Premier League and Arsenal's particular popularity in francophone Africa during Wenger's tenure saw it become a truly global club, if some way behind the likes of Real Madrid and Barcelona, or even more parochially of Manchester United and Liverpool. Its pioneering support for the women's game also helped expand the fanbase in new directions. The point is not the number of "genuine" fans, assuming this can even be accurately gauged (proxies like social media followers or the number of "official" supporters clubs are unreliable), but the anger that Arsenal's diverse fanbase seems to elicit among the fans of other English clubs. This encompasses both ethnicity (which can easily slip into xenophobia and racism) and the idea that Arsenal attract a disproportionate number of middle class fans who adopted the club as a form of cultural capital after reading (or watching) Fever Pitch (think of the Roger Nouveau character in The Fast Show).

For many fans of the bigger English teams, this concern with authenticity is often an expression of anxiety about their own club in the era of foreign ownership and the "pricing-out of working-class fans": the number of "plastics" or "tourists" at Old Trafford and Anfield, the role of petro-dollars at Chelsea and Manchester City. Arsenal is a convenient outlet for this unease: the game is being destroyed by global forces so surely the most cosmopolitan club must take much of the blame. That its owners are now American plutocrats rather than the scions of old English banking families is seen as evidence of the club's loss of its soul, like its move from the marble halls of Highbury to the Emirates Stadium, even though the club in the wider social sense has never been simply a reflection of its owners or its location (again, see Norris and the move from Plumstead's Manor Ground), and even though other big clubs have seen even more dramatic changes in ownership and ground.

The stylistic criticism of Arsenal is tied up with the claim that the team will always fall short: that there is something missing because the club is inauthentic. Thus even the Invincibles failed to win the Champions League, while the 2006 vintage couldn't hold a lead against Barcelona when down to 10 men (had Arsenal grimly hung on and won the game, the criticism would have been both "boring" and "lucky"). Finishing second in the Premier League for three seasons running was put down to "bottling" rather than the vagaries of competition, still less the advantages enjoyed by a team led by Pep Guardiola, the most successful manager of the modern era in Europe. It has been amusing to see the Catalan, who was often dismissed as a "bald fraud" by the fans of Liverpool and Manchester United, now being eulogised by those same fans in his final season precisely because they hoped he would once more edge past a nervous Arsenal in the final stretch.

The tale of Arsenal's season is simply told. They won 29 points over the first 12 games, then 27 over the next 13 and 29 over the final 13. In other words, they were consistent. The final lap of 5 games saw Arsenal win all of them, while City could only manage 2 wins and 2 draws. But nobody is about to say that City bottled it. Arsenal finished 7 points ahead of City largely because Guardiola's team have been sub-par for two seasons now. They won with 91 points in 2024, beating Arsenal by 2, but then recorded 71 and 78 points in 2025 and 2026 respectively. Arguably, Arsenal should have won last season, and would have done had they repeated their 2023-24 performance. What cost them was drawing 14 games. In short, an Arsenal title win has been imminent for some time, both because of Manchester City's relative decline and because nobody else was coming through (Liverpool's troubles this season reinforce the point and it's likely that Manchester United won't get near the title until they replace their entire defence, no matter how many plaudits Bruno Fernandes wins).

Arsenal fans can look forward with confidence. Arsene Wenger was intermittently successful, but always against the odds: first the generational talent of Alex Ferguson and Manchester United's wealth; then Chelsea's new-found wealth and ruthlessness; finally the financial constraints of the new stadium debt. Arteta doesn't face similar headwinds domestically, at least not yet, which means the club can realistically plan for more success over the next 5 years. Likewise, what the European campaign showed was that Arsenal can compete at the very highest level and, with a bit of luck, may yet pick up the big-eared pot. For some pundits, this is as a good as it gets. As Jonathan Liew put it, "What if this is a club already operating at 105% of their capacity?", as if it was about to blow a gasket, a variation of the usual trope of Arsenal falling to pieces at the sharp end of the season. But if the response by the fanbase is any guide, it looks like Arsenal still have plenty of headroom for growth in popularity and therefore revenue and that, allied to a realistically ambitious ownership (Spurs and West Ham take note), means they haven't topped-out yet. And it is the fear of that possibility that informs the negativity of the football press and the angst of so many other English fans.

Nearly Men

Around this time last year I noted that Spurs fans had happily willed their team to sacrifice a Champions League place in order to ensure that defeat against Manchester City would prevent Arsenal winning the domestic title. Their reward was participation in the Europa League instead, which in the event led them to win their first trophy in 17 years, while finishing immediately above the relegation places in the Premier League, thereby qualifying for next season's Champions League. It's a funny old game and no mistake, mate. Daniel Levy's decision (for it will have been his alone) that Ange Postecoglu should be sacked as Tottenham manager ironically reflects the coping machanism of many Arsenal fans: the odd bit of silverware doesn't really matter (the 2020 FA Cup coming in Mikel Arteta's first season was only ever considered an appetiser). What does matter is being able to compete for, and hopefully win, either of the big two: the Premier League or the Champions League. Coming second in the former and exiting to the eventual winners of the latter in the semi-finals is objectively a good season, even if pot-less, but it also raises a number of what-ifs, not least what if Merino's goal in the PSG first leg wasn't offside and what if Saka had scored a second in the return leg.

Nobody would deny that Arsenal needed to buy a top-end striker last summer, but equally few would claim that their failure was down to a perverse belief that they didn't need one. It was purely about who was available. If Arsenal can be criticised, it is that they missed the opportunity to sign the promising Alexander Isak in 2022, preferring to opt for the more seasoned Gabriel Jesus. This wasn't down to price, despite the impact of Saudi money at Newcastle, as the difference in headline cost was reportedly only £10 million. The more likely explanation is a combination of the Swede's relative inexperience and Arteta's familiarity with the Brazilian. That conservative decision hasn't worked out, largely due to Jesus's long spells of injury, and you have to suspect that he won't be more than a backup centre forward in future, if only because his career strike-rate (roughly 1 goal in 3 games) is simply not at the truly elite level (better than 1 in 2). Eddie Nketiah's sale last summer was a risk, with no replacement coming in, requiring first Kai Havertz and then Mikel Merino to take over striker duties once Jesus's season was ended by an ACL injury.

Arteta has done a good job building the squad over the last 5 seasons but he has been unlucky in terms of transfer timing - who is available when - and injury to key players. If nothing else, he has proven his ability as a manager in having to adapt the team to the available resources. But there is a sense that he really has to get it right this summer up-front. To compound matters, he has to do so with a new Sporting Director, Andrea Berta, and at a time when a lot of other elite clubs are looking for reliable goal-scorers. Despite winning the Premier League, and Mohamed Salah picking up the Gold Boot, Liverpool aren't going to rely on Darwin Nunez. Manchester United clearly need at least two new attackers, and possibly three, while Newcastle United, Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa could all do with more firepower. Probably only Isak and Erling Haaland at Manchester City can be sure of their positions as first-choice stikers. While there are other parts of the Arsenal squad that will need replenishment or expansion, a top-class striker will be the sine qua non of this transfer window.

Arsenal have been derided as nearly men, but it's worth taking that criticism on the chin and asking just how near they are to finishing top in the Premier League. In the 2023-24 season they finished second on 89 points, with a goal tally of 91 scored and 29 conceded. Those are unquestionably title-winning numbers: Liverpool's for 2024-25 were 84, 86 and 41 respectively. Arsenal's problem was that in 2023-24 Manchester City finished 2 points ahead on the same goal difference (so yes, Spurs' capitulation did make a difference). This past season has seen a decline in the numbers: 74 points, 69 scored and 30 conceded. Points per game dropped from 2.34 to 1.95, due to the number of draws increasing from 5 to 14. Defeats actually fell from 5 to 4. Broken down into thirds, Arsenal struggled in the first period (22, 21, 12), hit their stride in the second (31, 30, 10) and then struggled again in the final stretch (21, 18, 12). The last of these was clearly the result of injuries to key players, while the first saw the PGMOL test their new guidelines on delaying a restart exclusively on Arsenal players, which cost the team 4 points (Brighton at home and Manchester City away), and which they then seemed to forget about for the rest of the season. The overall impression is one of bad luck. 

How much is luck a factor? The two previous seasons saw Arsenal also finish second, but at a higher rate of points accumulation (2.21 and 2.34 per game) and consistency between the thirds. The problem was that Manchester City managed to finish a few points ahead on both occasions. In 2022-23 this was largely down to the head-to-heads, when City won both, while in 2023-24 it was down to Arsenal losing at home to Aston Villa having taken a net 3 points from the head-to-heads. Arsenal were clearly improving and many expected them to take the final step this season, not least when City went into free-fall before last Christmas. That they didn't is down to a lack of goals scored. The defence is the best in the country and the midfield one of the best. There have been concerns over a lack of creativity against low blocks, but in reality this reflects the issue at centre forward rather than Martin Ødegaard's poor form or the lack of a top-quality backup to Bukayo Saka. Despite not always being clinical, Jesus's movement helped open up attacking channels for the midfield, whereas Havertz, and latterly Merino, offer a more predictable target man. Arsenal need a striker who can dominate one-on-one but also a player who is mobile enough to unsettle the opposing back line.

In contrast, Liverpool were fortunate this season is not being so badly disrupted by injuries, having a largely settled squad, and in having Mohamed Salah in the form of his life. Their goals have mostly come from wide attackers and midfield while their defence, though second best to Arsenal, conceded only 2 fewer than Chelsea who finished fourth. You need a bit of luck to win a cup competition (Spurs managed 1 shot on target in the Europa League final), but what you need to win a league is an absence of bad luck. Arsenal's wide attackers have been hampered by injury, while the central midfield has yielded few goals largely because the players earmarked to provide bursts into the box, Havertz and Merino, have had to deputise at centre forward. Declan Rice has proved himself the English game's leading all-rounder, but it's a bit much to expect him to score a hatful of goals as well as covering every blade of grass between the penalty areas. We all know what the missing piece of the jigsaw is; we now just need to go out and buy it.

It's All About You

Jonathan Liew's midweek column in the Guardian starts with sarcasm - "Well, obviously we need to talk about that Myles Lewis‑Skelly red card" - but doesn't manage to advance much beyond it, unless you consider the Punch-style whimsy - the idea that you can be a football writer and know almost nothing about the leading referees - as an improvement. What the column doesn't do (well, obviously) is talk about the Myles Lewis-Skelly red card, other than to imply that those who have questioned it were guilty of hyperbole: "That was almost certainly not the worst decision you’ve ever seen." Liew has some self-awareness in an otherwise self-regarding piece: "nobody needs another sensible middlebrow columnist explaining in deeply patronising serif font that, actually, it’s the fans who are the problem here." But this is merely the downpayment on his final conclusion that "much of the stigmatisation of referees is a sublimation of other grievances: fan disenfranchisement, rising prices, malign owners, useless administrators, a sport that at an elemental level no longer works for us." Everyone and everything else is to blame.

At heart, most Guardian sports journalists prefer other sports to football - cricket, rugby, tennis, you get the idea - so their attitude towards the game is one of barely-concealed class disdain mixed with professional ennui. Compare and contrast the coverage whenever cricket or rugby are in "crisis". The class angle is obvious when you see Liew equate anger over refereeing standards "with “two-tier policing” and “legitimate concerns about immigration” as something over which the little people can obsess." In suggesting we shouldn't dismiss such concerns he is not just being patronisingly ironic in Guardian house-style, he is reverting for comic effect to the newspaper's atavistic view of football fans as part of an uncultured mob. There are plenty of people angered by Michael Oliver's decision who voted remain in 2016 and would support greater generosity towards asylum-seekers today (some may even be fans of cricket). That these issues are not of equivalent political or social importance does not mean that one in particular should not be addressed.

By submerging refereeing into a general bleat about football as a rapacious industry and football fans as unreasonable consumers, Liew seeks to dilute the issue of the PGMOL's high-profile errors and questionable use of VAR. The latter has raised standards, but by winnowing the chaff it has also highlighted arbitrariness (the Lewis-Skelly red card could have been challenged by Darren England at the time). Liew's plea that referees "should be anonymous" is both irrelevant to the issue of poor judgement and the inadequate recourse when referees get it wrong. VAR has helped, but it has been implemented in a way that seeks to protect the referees rather than the integrity of the game, hence the long delays and poor communication. Despite his disdain, even Liew cannot help but admit that the quality of refereeing is a legitimate concern (sic) and one that has become more pronounced as the referees have lost the anonymity that he cherishes. In his words, the PGMOL has become "a sort of floating body in the ether, run neither by the Football Association nor the Premier League and thus answerable to nobody but its own insatiable main-character energy".

In the event, Arsenal appealed the red card and it was duly over-turned by the independent regulatory commission. This wasn't unexpected, given the near-unanimity among ex-players and coaches (who provide the bulk of the 5-man commission) in the aftermath that it was a yellow card, but you don't have to be paranoid have to wonder whether the game's "guardians", such as the FA, may have been irked by the outcome and whether that may have contributed to what in football parlance is referred to as "a bit of afters", with Arsenal charged for failing to control their players. The media management of the fallout included the report that Michael Oliver's family had faced social media abuse and threats, the aim apparently being to paint the referee as the real victim, which is never a smart strategy. The coincidental Sun interview with David Coote, which linked his well-known troubles with the pressure of being secretly gay, likewise came across as special pleading on behalf of the referees obliged to survive in "the macho world of football". The whiff of thuggery is never far from the surface in media descriptions.

The Guardian, in the person of Barney Ronay, cast a typically withering glance in the direction of Coote's revelations and his choice of newspaper in which to make them, including the now standard ironic self-deprecation ("why is this person in the Guardian newspaper now complaining"). Not only did he criticise the grubby motives of the Sun ("monetising Coote's distress"), but he also suggested that associating homosexuality with bad behaviour would not encourage other gay referees to come out, which is a fair point. But that negative association is also being made by Ronay, albeit in a deniable "look what this other paper printed" fashion. Just as Jonathan Liew's column didn't need writing, so neither did Barney Ronay's, and both can be accused of making themselves the main character in their relationship with football, as well as chasing clicks by contrarian sneering. Typically, Ronay's final conclusion is that the game itself is rotten, "the real takeaway is how brutally football has chewed this person up", which chimes with Liew's take that football is essentially vicious.

Let us return to the Lewis-Skelly red card decision. One of the regular reasons for dismissing criticism of referees is what Liew describes as "conspiracy hokum": the idea that refs have it in for your favoured club. It's important here to distinguish between bias and corruption (e.g. Coote has faced questions about whether he issued a yellow card as the result of a betting tip to a mate). There is no substantiated evidence of corruption in the English Premier League, but that referees are subject to unconcisous bias is academically well-established. They are influenced by the crowd, they tend to favour home teams and currently successful teams, and there is a degree of regional sympathy. This last point is particularly salient in English football because of its partisanship: every referee is also assumed to be a fan (many are happy to publicise their allegiances). Most PGMOL referees hail from the North West or elsewhere above the Severn-Wash line. London is barely represented (compare and contrast its contribution to players and coaches), which gives rise to a certain paranoia among some fans of teams in the capital.

The issue is not that the PGMOL is a closed shop, though its lack of diversity does make it look like one, but that it is an intrinsically conservative institution with its own cultural norms, which above all means defending your mates against players and coaches and treating fans as ignorant and ignorable. The focus on bias, which the media implicitly stokes as much as it formally derides, is a moralistic distraction from this sociological point, not least because unconcious bias tends to be very marginal and in some cases (e.g. home advantage) will even out. What matters to fans are game-changing incidents, which in football is a reflection of how many such incidents there can be and how their impact varies over the duration of a match. Issuing a red card in the opening minutes or a penalty in the closing minutes matters a lot more than vice versa. And what some fans have begun to suspect is that referees are sensitive to this, hence the chants of "Who's the wanker in the black" and "You don't know what you're doing" have increasingly given way to "It's all about you".

It is this suspicion that referees want to be the centre of attention that drives the current dissatisfaction, not the "sublimation of other grievances" as Liew put it. And, whether you consider it bias or not, a controversial decision involving a big club (or a national team) is more likely to raise the profile of a referee than a similar decision involving a small club. This is why Liew's appeal for referees to be "highly paid and totally anonymous" is naive, even allowing for the weary irony. English referees have been making themselves the centre of attention ever since matches were televised - e.g. Jack Taylor awarding two penalties in the 1974 World Cup Final and Clive Thomas denying Brazil a winning goal against Sweden in the 1978 World Cup. The very existence of the PGMOL is a by-product of television and the money it has injected into the game, while the characteristics the organisation displays - prickliness, pedantry, vanity - are those that could be recognised in Taylor and Thomas all those years ago. What football needs is not more VAR or less VAR but more humble referees, which would require a massive cultural change at the grassroots. But so long as top-division games are comprehensively televised, don't expect it to filter up to the PGMOL.

Too Big to Fail

Arsenal fans were resigned to coming second in the Premier League after the home defeat to Aston Villa in mid-April, a loss that was quickly followed by a 0-1 exit to Bayern Munich in the Champions League. This wasn't because a more general collapse was anticipated but simply a recognition that Manchester City don't drop points during the run-in. The hope that this would be the season that they did was based on nothing more substantial than a belief that funny things happen. In the event, the funny stuff turned out to be Spurs fans willing their side to lose against City in order to ensure Arsenal wouldn't finish top. The reward for this was missing out on the last Champions League place to Villa and having to settle for Thursday night football in the Europa League. Perhaps the more lasting reward will be the realisation on the part of Ange Postecoglu that Tottenham simply don't have the mentality he demands. He certainly seemed mightily pissed-off with the behaviour of Spurs fans in the game against City and clearly felt that the malaise of "Spursiness" extended to parts of the club itself. At least he can console himself with a round trip to Melbourne on Wednesday for a friendly against Newcatle United.

Despite Arsenal's attempt to make a go of the final run of 6 matches, winning them all and matching City's final goal difference of +62, the predictable efficiency of the Abu Dhabi works team meant that only the most romantic still clung to the belief that West Ham might get something at the Etihad on Sunday. As the news of Kudus's goal went round the Emirates Stadium, swiftly followed by the rumour that the Hammers had pulled back another, there was obviously excitement, but as soon as the truth became clear there was mostly rueful chuckles rather than depression, as if the chief emotion was embarrassment for having been daft enough to believe the rumour. The real measure of how much Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan's money has surgically removed jeopardy from the title race was clear in the Arsenal crowd's reaction. We were happy that the team had produced a season statistically comparable to that of the Invincibles in 2003-4 (28 wins now versus 26 then, 89 points versus 90), but we also recognised that short of a fluke (such as the team 20 years ago drawing multiple games they should have lost), bumping City off their perch was never likely to happen.

In terms of thirds, the story of Arsenal's season was one of steady improvement, which seems paradoxical given the relentless way in which the team was overtaken in the final furlong. In points gained, we went from 27 to 28 and then 34. Goals for also went up, from 26 to 32 and then 33, but the most impressive trajectory was goals against: 10, 12 and finally 7. Had we managed to concede only 8 in that middle third then we'd probably have gained an extra 4 points (e.g. drawing with West Ham and beating Fulham). That would have given us the contingency of a possible defeat in the final third, so the Villa game might not have marked the end of our slim chances. It was the defence that got us to 89 points, a tally that was equalled or bettered only 11 times in the 25 seasons of the pre-Guardiola Premier League. Since then, the average points of the winners has been 93.7, with a points per game of 2.47. Arsenal finished with a points-per-game of 2.34. It's not a great difference, hence it went down to the wire, so the question must be: what can Arsenal do to marginally improve?

The answer could be divined in Sunday's final game. Bukayo Saka was injured, which meant Gabriel Martinelli took his place on the right of attack. Though he played well, we weren't as dangerous because he couldn't cut in on his left the way that Saka does. Martinelli has had a mixed season, but he remains close to a first choice on the left, where he can cut in on his right, in fruitful competition with Leandro Trossard. Arsenal's problem is that they lack a top-grade alternative to Saka, which means putting an excessive burden on him that at times has resulted in tired performances. We need another wide attacker. In the middle of the park, Thomas Partey gave what has become his signature performance: driving and dominant at times, but sloppy and easily caught at others. With Elneny going, and Jorginho staying as the old man of the squad who makes occasional cameo appearances, there was always going to be a defensive midfield recruit, and that will have to be a younger and more energetic model than Partey. The other interesting development was the return of the talented and flexible Jurrien Timber, reminding us that the defence can still improve.

Arsenal are getting close to having two top players available for each position. The most obvious gap now is central attack. Kai Havertz has done well, but his attraction for Arteta is his adaptability rather than his goalscoring prowess. In fact, I'm not sure that Arteta thinks in terms of positions at the top end of the pitch: it's more about having flexible patterns. Though he's still only 27, Jesus looks like he may be approaching the autumn of his career, and though flexible has never been prolific, so I wouldn't be surprised if he is allowed to move on if there's a decent offer. Pretty much every fan and pundit reckons Arsenal need a top goalscorer, but there aren't many about at the moment so I suspect Arteta may think laterally, just as he did with Havertz and before him with Ben White and David Raya. The latter has cemented his position as number 1, and gradually won over the fans, which probably means the popular Aaron Ramsdale moving on over the summer. There are still occasional heart-in-mouth moments but that low of only 29 goals conceded owes as much to Raya as to the widely-praised obduracy of Gabriel and Saliba. 

In the middle of the park Ødegaard and Rice are automatic starters and have struck up a fascinating odd couple relationship. It's not that they pass to each other that much - both are looking to feed the wings or slip balls into the penalty area - but that they complement each other's movement and positional play intelligently. The obvious issue for next season is how we replace them if they're injured. Smith-Rowe isn't quite at the captain's level in terms of pressing and general busyness, but he can deputise and has a good eye for both assists and goals. There's no obvious substitute for Rice, so that may be another area Arteta and Edu look to strengthen. There were hints in the Everton game that Tomiyasu could fill in the left-8 role, essentially as a more robust and energetic Zinchenko, not least his early wayward header in front of goal (shades of Xhaka) and then his smartly taken equaliser (ditto). Above all, Arsenal are going to have to evolve rather than just replicate what they already have. Constant evolution is what Guardiola has managed to achieve at City and that, as much as the financial doping, explains their dominance of the league.

There was a lot of love in the air after the final whistle, despite the players' obvious dissapointment at not winning the title, which is in marked contrast to a few season ago. Not only do the fans feel they've "got their Arsenal back" (a ridiculous but forgiveable trope), but there is an air of expectancy, rather than expectation, that a trophy may be there for the taking. Given the young squad's capacity for learning, and Arteta's proven ability to mastermind key wins (we've moved on from the mantra of "control" to something closer to "dominate"), I suspect the club wants to make a serious push for the Champions League, if only because that may actually turn out to be easier to win than the Premier League. The fans might prefer the latter, but it is no secret that the club hierarchy has long hankered for the one trophy to have eluded it over its storied history. At some point, we'll come up against one of City, Real Madrid or Bayern Munich, and I fancy us to beat any one of them across two-legs (or ideally in the final) if we can make those marginal improvements. Of course, the banter scenario is that we get knocked out by Bayer Leverkusen and specifically by a Xhaka rocket that deflects off a defender. Or is that just a bit too Spursy to be credible?

Looking at the league season more broadly, it was fortunate for the neutral that Arsenal made a contest of it. Liverpool ended 9 points off the top and stuttered to the finishing line, the announced departure of Jurgen Klopp failing to provide the spark for a late surge. They look like a team in need of further rebuilding, with too many of their recent acquisitions appearing oddly matched. In contrast, Chelsea have started to look less comical as Pochettino has started to work out the best combination of players, though the owners are perfectly capable of sabotaging his good work in the transfer window. Spurs will flatter to deceive early on next season; Villa look like they'll struggle with the extra demands of Champions League football, much as Newcastle did this season; and nobody can be sure what direction the clapped-out Manchester United team bus will head off in. VAR will stay - the issue isn't the technology but the PGMOL - and instead we'll all be chuntering about the new Champions League format. And the least surprising development of the coming season will be when Manchester City are acquitted on all charges of breaching Financial Fair Play rules. They have become too big to fail.

Arsenal vs The Celebration Police

We're two-thirds of the way through the league season so now is a good time to look at how the fight for the title is shaping up. Arsenal sit third, one point behind Manchester City and five behind Liverpool, who have played a game more. Most pundits think it will be a straight fight between the teams currently in first and second place, with Arsenal failing to keep pace and City favourites because they have won the last three titles (and five of the last six, Liverpool winning the other). In other words, the assumption is that history will repeat itself: the early promise of Arsenal's challenge fading, City putting together a winning run over a dozen games and Liverpool making one of their periodic dashes for the finishing line. People rarely go broke betting that tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's, but there are reasons to believe that a new script might emerge. After all, it has to happen at some point. A feature of modern football is that as teams have become more drilled on the pitch, and as players have become more diligent and unassuming off it, managers have increasingly taken on the burden of providing personality and colour in the game, so that is as good a place to start the analysis as any.

Both City and Liverpool have managers either leaving or likely to leave in the not-too-distant future. Jurgen Klopp has already announced that he will be taking a sabbatical at the end of the season and while there is nothing official, or even rumoured, I think most people expect Pep Guardiola to fancy a change now that City have won the Champions League. His increasingly spiky dealings with the press suggest a man eager to burn his boats, and it's hard to believe he sees turning Jack Grealish into a world-class player as a suitably engrossing project any more. The counterintuitive integration of players like Haaland and Doku into the City squad looks like a master craftsman tinkering with his mechanism out of idle curiosity. He has always cut a dissatisfied demeanour on the touchline, but it's noticeable how much more morose he looks these days. Just as Klopp's manic grin has come to seem like the mask of a man on the verge of a nervous breakdown, so Guardiola's irritability suggests that he's near the end of his tether, or at least sufficiently bored to want to walk away.

In contrast, Mikel Arteta remains wound up to the point of mania, which means he's still on the upward curve of the managerial trajectory. It's nothing more that relative age, but it does suggest that the growth potential at the Emirates is greater than that at Anfield or the Etihad. This has been reinforced this season by the frequency with which other members of the coaching staff have been given prominence in the media, notably Nicolas Jover's contributions to set-plays and the rumours of suitors for Carlos Cuesta, and by the near-legendary status accorded the warm-weather training trip to Dubai. Even the goalkeeping coach, Inaki Cana Pavon, has been mentioned in dispatches in the context of the background to David Raya displacing Aaron Ramsdale. What this suggests is the emergence of a new narrative in English football, which is partly down to Arsenal's undoubted progress in recent seasons and partly the boredom of the media with the established narrative embodied by Guardiola and Klopp. Attempts to create a positive narrative out of Ange Postecoglou appear to have faltered, mate, while the negative narrative of Manchester United under Erik ten Hag also appears to be fading.

This has given rise to some odd behaviour in the media, most notably the arrival of the celebration police with their demands that Arteta and his coaches comport themselves with greater dignity, as if winning a game of football was akin to laying a wreath at the Cenotaph. Given that the same sources were always able to find fault with the touchline behaviour of Arsene Wenger, a man who was never less than dignified even when confronted by rank imbecility, these snipes are not worth responding to, but they are worth thinking about as evidence that certain pundits with North West affiliations are becoming uneasy. This doesn't mean that Arsenal are bound for glory, but it does suggest that the foundations are there for a sustained period of excellence that will unquestionably improve the chances of said glory. This is perhaps best understood if we look at the data. Over the first 12 games of the season, Arsenal garnered 27 points, scoring 26 and conceding 10. Over the next 13 games they took 28 points, scoring 32 and conceding 12. This looks like consistency, even if you'd ideally have liked 2 or 3 more points per third. The question is: can they maintain this pace and perhaps even improve on it?

Last season, the points haul per third was 31, 29 and 24: a fast start and then an accelerating decline at the business end. In Arteta's first two full seasons, Arsenal secured 13+21+27 and then 20+28+21. In other words, he has overseen periods of top-four performance (25+ points) but has been unable to sustain this over a season. 2022-23 saw title-challenging performance (28+) over two thirds, which was enough to achieve an 84-point second place finish. The hope is that this season will see a steadier return and thus a consistent table-topping points tally in the 85-90 range. 35 points from a possible 39 remaining is achievable, but 30 is more likely. However a final tally of 85 might be enough to win the title. It's worth noting that Man City had 55 points after 25 games last season and went on to take the crown with 89, but I suspect they'll drop a few more points along the way this season. Their games away to Liverpool and at home to Arsenal in March could well be decisive.

In terms of the squad and style of play, Arsenal look more balanced and varied. There have been hiccoughs and a periodic struggle with low-block defences (the defeat away to Porto this week being the latest), but there have also been examples of Arsenal confusing their opponents with their movement and the attention to detail on set-plays has been real and rewarding. As is usually the case at this stage of the season, Arsenal are going to need some luck on the injury front: specifically that they don't lose key players like Ødegaard, Saka and Rice. Given that they've lost Timber and Partey for almost all of the season, and Tomiyasu, Zinchenko and Jesus for part of it, you could say that they've already proved that the squad has greater resilience and depth. The question is whether they can now raise their game for the title run-in and take either or both of Liverpool and Man City to the wire. The one thing we can be certain of is that whoever manages to win the title this year will be fully justified in tearing off down the touchline to celebrate.

A VARcical Start to the Season

There is an air of familiarity at the top of the English Premier League, with Manchester City leading Liverpool and Arsenal and the usual suspects close behind, though Tottenham Hotspur appear to have replaced Manchester United as the seasonal anomaly: a team that aren't as good as the pundits claim but who have certainly been lucky. The good fortune that saw Erik ten Hag's team of misfits finish third last season (their goal difference was a paltry 15, which should have consigned them to sixth or seventh) appears to have run out, and luck may be about to do a flit from Ange Postecoglou's refashioned Spurs as well. What Tottenham's recent stumble indicates is that they remain a shallow squad who will probably struggle against teams in the top third of the table on most matchdays, despite the relatively good results achieved against Liverpool at home (that notoriously disallowed Diaz goal) and Arsenal away (a game in which Jesus missed a sitter and Jorginho uncharacteristically gave the ball away). 

The other familiar feature, beyond Chelsea stuck in mid-table, is the interminable chuntering over VAR. For all the obvious errors and angry managerial reactions, this has been a strange debate because it scrupulously avoids the central issue, namely that the obvious incompetence is because the system is controlled by PGMOL. As the Spurs-Liverpool fiasco made clear, the interaction of the match officials lacks process discipline and suffers from over-familiarity ("That's wrong that, Daz"). The obvious flaw is that the official's discussions aren't broadcast. Where that happens, such as in rugby, public exposure encourages both a clear protocol - explicitly state the on-field decision and what is being checked - and militates against ambiguous, blokeish idioms. The whole idea of referees checking their own homework and, as Mike Dean cheerfully admitted, consequently seeking to protect their "mates", was obviously flawed from the start. That said, there was never much likelihood of the technology being introduced without PGMOL being in control of it. 

A long-standing bleat by well-paid pundits is that former players should be encouraged to become referees, which has always struck me as evidence of those pundits' unworldliness. Getting ex-pros to work their way up the ranks as referees isn't going to happen. They don't need the money these days and certainly not the aggro. But there is a good case for them being fast-tracked in as specialist VAR assistants, not simply because of their experience playing the game but in order to maintain some emotional distance between the VAR booth and the officials on the pitch. Of course, this would be akin to putting potential pundits in charge of VAR, and you can imagine the reaction of PGMOL to that, but then if all pundits had to serve an apprenticeship as VAR assistants, would that actually be a bad thing? It might even improve the quality of punditry by encouraging match commentators to be less willing to rush to judgement (though probably not Garry Neville).

The international football break - aka the interlull - has come at the thirdway point of the season, with all teams now having played 12 games. At 27 points and third behind Manchester City on 28 and Liverpool also on 27, Arsenal are slightly worse off than at the same stage last season, when they has 31 points and were 2 ahead of Guardiola's team. The rationalisation among fans is that our dash to the front in 2022 was ultimately undone by conceding too many goals and thus points in the final third of the season, largely due to injuries to key players such as William Saliba and Takehiro Tomiyasu. City paced themselves better, as they usually do, finishing strongly after beating us home and away in February and April. It is widely assumed that Arteta has decided to sacrifice some of the goal-scoring verve that marked the opening third of last season in order to make us more secure at the back. Controlling games better, in the manner of City, and increasing the depth of the squad, should not only make the team more efficient but more durable. Beating City at the Emirates in October might be a taste of that.

However, though our goals scored has dropped from 30 to 26, our goals conceded has only improved from 11 to 10. But an average of a little under a goal a game is probably is as good as it will get: City have now conceded 12 (albeit 4 of those were in today's game at Stamford Bridge). What matters is whether that rate can be sustained through to the end of the season. The last time Arsenal conceded fewer in the opening third, 9 in the 2015-16 season, they finished second behind Leicester City after conceding 13 and 14 in the middle and last thirds (and also losing their shooting boots in that middle third, scoring only 17). With injuries beginning to mount up, Arsenal face a key set of games after the interlull, running through to New Year's Eve, that could go a long way to determining whether Aretea's strategy has a chance of working. The coincidence of games against Liverpool and West Ham United either side of Chrismas, back-to-back fixtures that essentially ended our title tilt last April, offers the chance of psychological redemption.

In terms of the balance of the team, the key issue remains our limited options up front. Though Leandro Trossard and Kai Havertz have clearly given Arteta more variety, we just as clearly need another specialist forward who can lead the line as effectively as Jesus but with more reliable end-product. Eddie Nketiah remains a useful backup, as he proved against Sheffield United, but he isn't the sort of dominant striker that Arsenal require. If the team can keep on City's coat-tails until the end of the year, then they may well make a move in the January transfer window. At the other end of the pitch, the demotion of Aaron Ramsdale in favour of David Raya has divided fans, not least because the Spaniard doesn't appear to be that much of an upgrade on the popular English stopper. Time will tell whether this proves an astute tactical move by Arteta, but it is the first test of the much-vaunted "connection" that the club has established with the fanbase over the last couple of years.

In midfield, Thomas Partey's time at the club increasingly looks like it will come to an end this season, his persistent injury problems meaning that he can't be considered a key cog in the team in the way that Declan Rice has quickly become, despite his occasional dominant performances. Rice hasn't been a revelation exactly - he was propping up West Ham for years and always looked comfortable for England - but it's noticeable how much better he looks in a more technical team. If Arteta's endurance strategy is to pay off, it will depend to a large degree on Rice providing drive and defensive security in the middle of the park consistently until May. Jorginho looks like what he is: an experienced pro who can fill-in, but that simply makes him an upgrade on Mohammed Elneny. For all his popularity, the Egyptian is likely to leave by the end of the season while the Italo-Brazilian is unlikely to play more than twenty games. In brief, Arsenal will probably need to bring in another defensive midfielder next summer. 

In terms of the creative roles, niggles for Martin Odegaard, Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli should prove transient, though there remains a concern about the load on the England player. There is also the now perennial hope that Emile Smith-Rowe will finally get a break on the injury front. But it doesn't look like Reiss Nelson or Fabio Vieira are going to make the grade, or secure Arteta's lasting confidence, which amounts to the same thing, so there's every chance the manager and Edu will be in the market for another wide player. Kai Havertz hasn't lived up to his billing, however I have a sneaking suspicion that he could yet be pivotal (I'm obviously just hoping he repeats the trick of scoring the winner in the Champions League final). He's overdue a spectacular goal; or even just an ugly one. His languid style of play has irritated some Arsenal fans, though the player he reminds me of (based on  limited exposure through old videos, it should be said), with his astute positional sense and heading ability, is one George "Stroller" Graham. 

Overall, it's been a fascinating start to the season, with no one team setting the pace in the way that Arsenal did this time last year, and with plenty of unpredictable results and some very good games featuring late drama, such as today's 4-4 draw between Chelsea and Manchester City. As ever, what will matter is consistency in the middle third of the season and then the ability to tighten the screw in the final third, which ultimately reflects the depth of squads as much as tactics. Arsenal look more capable of lasting the distance this time round, though it is going to take some luck - or at least the absence of bad luck - on the injury front, while City are unlikely to repeat their treble triumph of last season and might even prioritise defending the Champions League over another Premier League title. The biggest threat to last season's top two is likely to be Liverpool, who despite looking chaotic at times have crept into second and have the muscle memory of a consistent run to the title to call upon, not to mention the incentive of winning the title in front of their fans rather than a Covid-emptied stadium. It promises to be a vintage season. Let's hope it isn't decided by dodgy VAR.

Onwards and Upwards

Arsenal's season ended not so much with a whimper as a demonstration of the team's unpredictability. Like a marching band suddenly losing step and dropping half of its instruments, points were carelessly thrown away against Liverpool, West Ham and Southampton in April before the crunch match at the Etihad Stadium proved that they were definitely second-best to Manchester City. This was followed by title-worthy wins against Chelsea and Newcastle United before the team appeared to give up hope at home to Brighton and away at Nottingham Forest. The closing day's thumping victory over an obliging Wolves side reminded us of the potential, but meant little outside of the positive vibes that had been present all season. However, that "connection", as Mikel Arteta described it, is perhaps the most valuable outcome of the season. Qualification for the Champions League is important in both sporting and financial terms, but ultimately Arteta's project will depend on the fans' patience and so far they have concurred in his belief that the squad is another season or two away from lifting a major trophy.

I said at the two-thirds point of the season that Arsenal could win the league if they finished on 90 points and City dropped a few. In the event, they won the title on 89 points versus the Gunner's 84, and didn't drop any points until after the title was secured. In other words, Arsenal's relative failure was due to those 6 dropped points in April and I can't have been the only fan who thought that the jig was up before we travelled to play City. The popular narrative is that the squad was found wanting when injuries hit, notably when the loss of both William Saliba and Takehiro Tomiyasu left a hole in the defence. There's some truth in that - the squad clearly needs more quality in depth, though it should be noted that adding Jorginho and Leandro Trossard was a clear step to address that deficiency - but it's also true that those 6 dropped points were due to the team losing control of games needlessly, rather than a tired team being battered on the ropes by its opponents. 

Divided into thirds, Arsenal gained 31 points over the first 12 games, 29 over the next 13 and 24 over the final 13. That looks like a decline, but that final third saw the highest goals scored - the sequence was 30, 26 and 32 - the problem was that it also saw the most conceded - the sequence being 11, 12 and 20. Of that increase in goals conceded, 7 came in that run of three draws in April. The disruption to the defence clearly played a part in that, but perhaps the bigger issue was the way that the team failed to keep a chokehold on the two away games, at Anfield and the London Stadium, which ultimately was a reflection on the midfield and its recurrent tendency to give the ball away cheaply rather than the defence. With Granit Xhaka almost certain to move on, Thomas Partey looking inconsistent and Oleksandr Zinchenko being injury prone you can understand the targeting of Declan Rice. Personally, I think the squad needs two fresh central midfielders as Jorginho isn't going to play 45+ games.

For all the plaudits earned by Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes, perhaps the greatest success in defence this season has been Aaron Ramsdale, who not only silenced his critics but has been central to that sense of connection between players and fans. The conundrum in defence is less about how many centre-backs we need to stockpile, though clearly Rob Holding's deficiencies in playing out from the back mean he's no longer the future so another incoming is likely, but what sort of full-backs we need. The inverted role of Zinchenko, which Arteta also tried to emulate using Partey at the tail-end of the season, has provided another dimension to the team, but that in turn has left Kieran Tierney looking out of place. Do we keep him for variety or look for a like-for-like backup to the Ukrainian? Whatever happens, it's doubtful that the agent of chaos known as Nuno Tavares will reappear in Arsenal colours again. Likewise, is the plan to revert to using Ben White as a full-back, in which role he excelled both defensively and offensively, or will Tomiyasu be preferred as a defender happy to move into the middle of the backline when the left-back moves into midfield? 

In attack, Arsenal managed to score 88 goals, which was only 6 fewer than Manchester City. This was done by spreading the load, rather than relying on a machine in the mould of Erling Haaland, who got 36 in 35 games, with Gabriel Martinelli, Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard each scoring 14 or 15. Jesus managed 11 in a curtailed campaign and Trossard looks like he can get into double figures too. Perhaps the biggest surprise was Granit Xhaka, who got 7 in the league and 9 in all competitions. As the obvious deputy for Jesus, Eddie Nketiah scored 4 in the league and 9 overall, despite severely limited playing time. The problem is that while title-winning teams usually have strong goal contributions from midfielders and wide players, they also tend to have a standout goal scorer. When Arsenal last won the league in 2004, Thierry Henry banged in 30 and Robert Pires, the next highest scorer in the team, got 14. With Haaland going nowhere and Harry Kane probably going somewhere, the day of the goal-a-game player is clearly not over.

The club has more pressing matters on the transfer front, but I can't help suspecting that a top-drawer striker will become the priority in a year or two. Nketiah isn't quite at that level, though he's been a profilific scorer in his career to date, and nor is Folarin Balogun, despite his impressive numbers on loan at Reims. Bear in mind that Alexandre Lacazette just scored 27 over the Ligue 1 season, compared to Balogun's 20, and he never scored more than 14 in the Premier League and in his last season at Arsenal managed only 4. I'd love to be proved wrong, but I suspect Nketiah will find his level as a striker for a mid-table team. I actually really like him as a player, in terms of his style and opportunism - he reminds me of Emilio Butragueño (who incidentally never scored more than 19 in a La Liga season and usually got half that) - I just don't think he's going to be a 30 goals a season striker. Of course, Arteta may (and not for the first time) prove me wrong. If we can get 4 players scoring 15 goals in the league a season then the title would look more likely than not.

In terms of highlights, the fightback against Bournemouth is obviously up there, though the actual significance was the evidence of sloppy concessions creeping into our game rather than the emergence of Reiss Nelson from his chrysalis. Bukayo Saka's reliability was never in doubt, but the maturity of the 21 year-old remains startling. If I were a betting man I'd have a crafty fiver on him being the first black manager of England. It was also pleasing to see the way that Martin Ødegaard embraced the captaincy without it negatively affecting his game. Indeed, his determination to play outrageous balls on the pitch while presenting as a level-headed, emotionally-literate adult beyond his years off it was exemplary (compare and contrast with Granit Xhaka's short-lived tenure). But perhaps this misses the point. To return to the opening of this post, what will probably last longest in the memory is the sense of connection between the players and the fans. 

After what felt like a decade of growing alienation during Wenger's later years, and even at points early in Arteta's reign, there was clearly a collective decision for fans to get behind the team during the 2021-22 season, particularly once young talent like Saka and Emile Smith Rowe was pushed to the fore, and the success (relative) of the season just gone can, I think, be put down to that as much as the tactical tweaks of the manager and the transfer nous of Edu, the sporting director. It has also been noticeable how Josh Kroenke taking a more public role, and his father Stan wisely staying in the background, has improved relations all round. From the promotion of the women's team through the return of Jack Wilshere to the redecoration of the outside of the Emirates Stadium, there has been a real sense of Arsenal rediscovering itself as a club, rather than a marketing opportunity.

So Far, So Good

We're two-thirds of the way through the season so now is a good time to review Arsenal's progress. Broken into thirds, we managed 31 points over the first 12 games and 29 over the next 13. That might suggest a slight dropping off, but it's worth noting that the latter haul suffered from 2 points denied due to a VAR error in the home game against Brentford plus the inexplicable but entirely predictable defeat away at Everton. If justice had been served in that home game, and if we had managed to at least draw at Goodison Park, then we'd be on 32 points and 8 points ahead of Manchester City rather than 5. While losing to Sean Dyche in his first game in charge of the otherwise hapless Toffees always seemed fated, a feature of the season to date is that we've avoided some of the calamities against lower-half teams that have dogged us in recent years, such as at Southampton and Wolves. It's also worth noting that we won away at Brighton and Brentford, both very much upper-half teams now but tricky customers in the not-too-distant past, and of course we did the double over Spurs, who for all their obvious flaws are still fourth in the table.

Though we have the second-highest goals scored, after City, the more telling statistic is that we have the second-best goals conceded, after Newcastle United. 23 against is our best at this stage since the 2015-16 season when we finished second to Leicester City. If there's an augury in that, it is that the Foxes won the Premier League on a total of only 81 points. Since then, the title has been won on under 90 points only once. The reason I mention it is that after 25 games last season Manchester City had 63 points. Their current tally of 55 suggests that this will be a season in which the title will probably be won by a total of around 90. If City win all of their remaining games (including the one against us), they'll finish on 94. If we win 12 of our remaining 13 games, we'll finish on 96. Their erratic progress this season, plus Guardiola's focus on the Champions League, suggests they're unlikely to achieve that perfect run, so I think they'll finish in the high 80s. Arsenal's aim is therefore 10 wins from 13 games.

It's clear that the club's original target for the season was Champions League qualification, though they may have revised that upwards. Based on previous years, ending in fourth will probably take 67-70 points. As we now have 60, I think we can be confident that a placing finish is within our grasp. The Europa League will almost certainly be downgraded in strategic terms, given that the real prize in that competition is progress to the more prestigious UEFA league and the silverware hardly compares to the Premiership. I suspect most Arsenal fans will be perfectly happy if we exit in the round of 16 against Sporting Lisbon. The real danger of the Europa League is not fatigue but the possibility of a season-ending injury to a key player. In terms of who those players are, it's worth noting that you could probably list most of the first 11 now, so much have they excelled as a team. It's also worth noting how well the backups have performed. When Garbiel Jesus picked up his injury at the World Cup, many assumed Arsenal's season would nosedive, but Eddie Nketiah proved an impressive deputy in December and January. 

Equally impressive is that as other teams adapted to Arsenal's change in approach, with Nketiah's more box-poaching style allowing them to double-up on Saka and Martinelli, Mikel Arteta has tweaked the system by swapping Eddie with Leandro Trossard as a false 9, recreating the uncertainty for defenders that Jesus provided. This in turn emphasises how critical the transfer dealings over the January period were. Jorginho has already proven a bargain both by providing a decent if limited deputy for Thomas Partey (a crisper passer than Elneny but nowhere near as physically dominating as the Ghanaian international) and by banging in that crucial goal away at Villa Park off Emi Martinez's head, and Trossard looks like he will contribute a useful number of goals between now and the end of the season. Going further back, the summer arrivals of Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko were obviously crucial, as much for the injection of a winning mentality as for their tactical value. But the latter shouldn't be underestimated. After two seasons of relative tactical rigidity as Arteta and Edu sorted out the squad, we're now seeing an Arsenal who are not only fluid in their play but highly flexible in their positioning and rotation on the pitch. 

It should be no surprise that this has coincided with greater on-field discipline. So far, we have 39 yellows (14th highest) and are the only club to have not picked up a red card. To put this in context, we had the second highest number of reds last season (4) and ended with 60 yellows (13th highest). In other words, we're not committing fewers fouls but we are committing fewer stupid ones. That said, we are conceding more penalties than we're winning, 4 to 2 so far, but that appears to be more down to the reluctance of referees to penalise defenders taking out Bukayo Saka than anything else. The tactical and positional changes have also steered some of our card-magnets away from danger, for example by pushing Granit Xhaka into a more advanced midfield role where his lack of pace on the turn is less of a liability and his accurate passing can be more dangerous. This has been made possible by improvements in defence where the addition of William Saliba, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Zinchenko has given us genuine depth.

For me the standout player of the season so far has been Martin Ødegaard. The youthful captain has provided goals, assists and energy, but most of all he has speeded-up the team's passing. Arsenal are at their best when the ball is moved slickly. While the "low block" has become de rigeur for most teams defending against the Gunners, it has rarely proved wholly effective. The notorious goalless home draw against Newcastle United was down to time-wasting as much as solid defending, and Arsenal have only failed to score in two games: the game against the Magpies and the loss at Everton. While some of the goals scored by Arsenal have come from incisive wing play, many of the match-winners have been the result of incisive passing into the box. The midweek 4-0 defeat of Everton at the Emirates Stadium was illustrative, with Saka's opener coming from a short forward pass into a channel of space, before a second was snaffled by the winger with a smart tackle that teed up Martinelli for a routine finish. The two goals in the second half came from the wings once Everton tired, Arsenal ending with 73% possession.

What this highlights is that Arsenal have enough tools in the box (plan Bs, if you prefer) to usually find a way of scoring, and that is down to the variety and quality of their approach players, not only Ødegaard, Saka and Martinelli but Xhaka and Zinchenko as well. And with 11 clean sheets (second only to Newcastle's 12), that means they usually win the game. Interestingly, most of those clean sheets have come away from home, and three of them featured classic 1-0 wins, at Leeds, Chelsea and Leicester. What stands out in that sequence of results is Arsenal's growing ability to control the game. It started off with some good fortune at Elland Road in October, as Patrick Bamford missed a penalty and another spot-kick (and a red card for Gabriel) was overturned by VAR. But that was a pretty even game: 4 shots on target each and Arsenal shading possession at 53%. Against Chelsea in November, Arsenal had 56% possession and allowed the Blues only two shots (one on target). Against Leicester City it was 66% possession and the home side managed only 1 shot, which was off-target.

Can Arsenal win the league? Of course they can. Will they? Who knows. In previous years I'd have said that this was in the lap of the injury gods, though as we saw last season, the petering out of form can also afflict a relatively young side at the business end of the season. This year I'm more optimistic because I think we can cope with injuries better, even if the solutions may necessarily be a little makeshift, and because I suspect the adrenaline and momentum of a positive season to date should be enough to get us over the finishing line in good shape. While the 5 points in the bag at this stage are very useful, the decisive factors come May could turn out to be Manchester City's distractions in Europe and the FA Cup, and the Arsenal squad's hunger. Even if they fall short, their youth and steady improvement bodes well for the coming years. The one fly in the ointment is that while other large clubs are clearly in transition (Liverpool and Chelsea, but maybe also City if Guardiola leaves after winning the Champions' League), it looks like Manchester United may be ahead of schedule and are still in with a shout this season. 

Bring Back The Old Songs

There are a number of reasons why I've never been a fan of the song Good Old Arsenal, such as the use of the bumptious Rule, Britannia! tune and the fact that Jimmy Hill wrote the lyrics. But the main reason is that it sounds so anxious: "while we sing this song we'll win the game". I'd prefer a song in which victory wasn't dependent on the fans ruining their vocal chords. The most anxious football fans are not those who follow teams at the top or bottom of the table. Despite the best efforts of the media to make the final day of the season a festival of jeopardy and uncertainty, the end results were largely predictable. Manchester City held off Liverpool, as they have done for months, while the relegation of Burnley, along with the already-relegated Watford and Norwich, was long foretold. Leeds managed enough of a bounce after sacking Marcelo Bielsa to reach safety, in no small part because their small squad has some talented, young players, while the Clarets's decision to ditch Sean Dyche couldn't arrest their decline simply because they remained his team: obdurate and ugly but ageing and lacking quality. No, the most anxious fans are those in between because their teams tends to flirt with either ascension into the upper strata or collapse into the lower depths. If your team manages to do both in the same season, then you may need medical support. 

It's fair to say that Arsenal's season has been a curate's egg. From bottom of the table after a calamitous opening run of three defeats to peaking at 2 points behind Chelsea in third in April. That we were pipped to fourth and Champions League qualification by Spurs was down to many factors during the run-in - injuries to key players, a lack of depth, the naivety of a young squad - but really it all came down to the month of April, which served as a microcosm of the season. Three defeats in a row against Crystal Palace, Brighton and Southampton suggested mid-table obscurity, but then a superb counter-attacking win at Stamford Bridge and a battering of Manchester United at home suggested a bright future. Had we turned one of those three defeats into a victory, we would (mutatis, mutandis) have finished fourth, a point ahead of Tottenham. We might even have been sufficiently confident that Arteta could have played a more defensive game at White Hart Lane and come away with a draw, or even nicked a win, instead of going toe-to-toe and coming up short.

Broken down into thirds (games 1-12, 13-25 and 26-38), the season record is a bell curve: 20 points, then 28 and finally 21. Despite that purple patch in the middle, Arsenal only rose from fifth to the giddy heights of fourth, though it also saw their goal difference improve from -4 to 12. This points to a wider story of mediocrity among the chasing pack, with Manchester United, Spurs and West Ham also culpable. It's worth remembering that after 12 games Chelsea were top by 3 points. By game 25 they were third and 16 points behind City (albeit the eventual champions had played 2 more games by then). The overall tale of the season then is obviously one of two elite teams, City and Liverpool, racing ahead of the pack. The final gap between second and third was 18 points, the gap from first to third 19. In contrast, 19 points down from third takes you to between West Ham United in 7th and Leciester City in 8th. 

What this means for Arsenal is that a realistic target is third. Having moved from a final position of 8th in 2021 to 5th now, that's certainly achievable, but it will require a significant improvement not only in the playing staff but in game management. As the youngest squad in the league, with the youngest manager, there's every reason to believe that we can advance on both fronts, and there is a palpable sense of support for "the process" both among the club hierarchy and a fanbase hitherto known for being particularly grumpy and fractious. This new harmony is perhaps best reflected in the adoption of Louis Dunford's The Angel as a terrace anthem. The lyrics aren't much better than Jimmy Hill's ("North London foreva, whateva the wevva"), but at least they're optimistic. While the voluble support and engagement of the fans has obviously owed something to the lifting of the pandemic restrictions, it's also clear that we've passed a watershed in the post-Wenger transition phase. The underperformers and mood-hoovers that Arteta inherited have been moved on, even if this has stymied us short-term by depleting numbers. The incoming players have been of variable quality, but White and Tomiyasu are likely to be mainstays in future while Lokonga will probably improve, particularly if he gets to play in the Europa League. Whether the chaos-agent that is Nuno Tavares can improve is another matter.

The eruption of youth has caught the eye, but what's particularly promising is how mature those younger players are, both on and off the pitch. It is the older players, like Xhaka and Cedric, who have at times proved hot-headed and panicky, not the likes of Saka, Smith-Rowe or Ødegaard (deservedly wearing the captain's armband of late). Not for the first time, Arsenal's tally of 4 red cards (only beaten by Everton's 6) owed much to some dubious refereeing decisions, notably against Gabriel Martinelli in the away game at Molineux. The tally of 60 yellows was eighth lowest - respectably mid-table. The one exception to the image of level-headed youth is Aaron Ramsdale, who seemed to get more jittery as the season advanced (perhaps recalling his previous relegation with Sheffield United), however this is probably part and parcel of a personality that has proved popular with the fans and should be indulged to a degree. I'm firmly of the old school belief that great goalkeepers are essentially odd-balls. I also suspect he's still pinching himself over how much progress he has made since signing for Arsenal: first-choice and an England cap. 

So the future looks bright. Attention now switches to the all-important work of Mikel Arteta and Edu Gaspar, the Technical Director, in acquiring the right new players to either give us greater depth in key positions or to fill some obviously gaping holes. The former is largely about greater resilience in defence. Assuming William Saliba makes his long-awaited debut and someone like Aaron Hickey comes in, we should be stronger, though I suspect Arteta may want further cover if Cedric leaves. In midfield, the question is whether to hope that Partey stays fit and Lokonga matures or to invest in another player. This will ultimately come down to whether Xhaka stays or goes. As ever, it's impossible to predict which way he will jump, though the crowd on the final day against Everton certainly gave him plenty of appreciation. Up-front, we remain blessed with exciting wingers and support strikers but have a massive hole where Aubameyang used to be. Pepé looks like he's in the departure lounge, along with Alexandre Lacazette, though I doubt we'll recover more than a fraction of his club record fee.

What's not clear at this stage is what Arteta wants in a forward, given the various names we've been linked with, or whether he hopes to keep Nketiah in the squad. If Eddie leaves on a free transfer, we'll need two strikers and that will be difficult given the likely cost. My guess is that Nketiah will re-sign and we'll go all-in on a proven goal-scorer who can play a similar poaching role. That would point to someone like Gabriel Jesus, rather than a more traditional spearhead like Dominic Calvert-Lewin (whose "audition" on Sunday at the Emirates Stadium proved that he has learnt a lot from Duncan Ferguson, though not all of it technically qualifies as football). An outside bet would be Olly Watkins, who looks like a player on an upward trajectory. That he is a Gooner is nice, but such sentiment will have little bearing on the decision. Jesus is the younger player and arguably moving into the peak years of his career (he's only just turned 25), as well as being someone Arteta and Edu both know well from their time at City and Brazil respectively. Anyway, it would certainly prompt hilarity when Ramsdale gets a straight red from Michael Oliver for farting and the new boy has to go in goal.

In summary, it has been a season of both promise and disappointment, though the latter is largely a consequence of the former. My prediction after that horrendous opening was that we would recover and steadily march towards sixth. What I didn't predict, but perhaps should have, was that our course would be more erratic than steady. What I'm really hoping for next season is not only a further improvement on our league position, and perhaps some better runs in the cups, now that we've got three to compete for, but a calmer, more reliable progress. I've enjoyed the highs - the home defeat of Spurs, the away win at Chelsea, the victory over Machester United - but the lows have been pretty horrible. I can put up with games we lose but compete in, such as the undeserved home defeat to a very fortunate Manchester City, but our continuing tendency to screw up in away games against very modest and umabitious opponents is maddening (in the loss to Southampton, we had 76% possession and managed 23 shots - only 6 on target). It's a tired cliché (because there's no smoke without fire, you know) but what we really need is consistency. The real mark of progress will be when opposing fans start singing "Boring, boring Arsenal" again.

Ups and Downs

A rollercoaster ride is an overworked metaphor when it comes to describing a football season, but for once it's justified when reviewing Arsenal's performance over 2020-21. It started with silverware, the victory over Liverpool in the Community Shield, though this came so soon after the delayed FA Cup Final that most people mentally bracketed it with the preceding season. After opening brightly in the league, we were then beaten by Liverpool, Manchester City and Leicester in quick succession, which suggested we were still someway off being realistic challengers for a top position. We perked up with an away win at Old Trafford, and then promptly imploded at home to first Aston Villa and then Wolves. The run-up to Christmas saw us manage only a single point out of a possible 15, the lowlight being a home defeat to Burnley due to an Aubameyang own-goal. This was the only match at which spectators were allowed in before the second lockdown. I was lucky in the ticket ballot, which meant I got drenched in the rain as the club put us all in a section most exposed to the weather, presumably because it was well-ventilated. After such depressing calamity, it was surely inevitable that we would then beat Chelsea 3-1 on Boxing Day. 

January saw a marked improvement in both form and results, marred only by an unfortunate exit in the FA Cup to Southampton (another game lost to an own goal). February saw us revert to incompetence against Wolves (2 red cards after dominating the first half made this a rollercoaster in miniature) and Villa once more, before recovering with a fine away win at Leicester. March saw us stop losing and produced an energising win at home against Spurs that no doubt hammered one of the nails into the coffin of José Mourinho's Tottenham tenure. April saw home defeats against Liverpool and Everton, the latter featuring a Leno own-goal, and points dropped against Fulham. May saw 5 straight wins in the league, including an away win at Chelsea, which proved enough to haul us from 9th position at the beginning of the month to the giddy heights of 8th place at season end. In most years, that run would have seen us leapfrog two or three teams, but the gap to the top six had simply been too big after the disastrous run from early November to the middle of December. The silver-lining to this particular cloud was that we now don't have to worry about Thursday night football, while Spurs have the dubious honour of qualifying for the Europa Conference League.

Broken down into thirds, we secured only 13 points from the first 12 games, easily our worst return in a decade and definitely relegation-flirting. The middle third saw 21 points from 13 and the final third 27 points from the same number of games. 75 points would have been enough to finish in second place, ahead of Manchester United, so it's fair to say our recent form has been of the desired level. But while the overall trajectory was upwards, it's hard to interpret this as steady improvement. The final points tally is only up 5 on the previous season and it remains the second worst over the last 10 years. Had we managed to win the four games we lost home and away to Aston Villa and Wolves (teams that finished 11th and 13th respectively), we would have finished in third place, a point behind Manchester United and now have the Champions League to look forward to. Even if we'd only managed 8 points from that possible 12, we'd have finished ahead of Chelsea in fourth. All teams drop points, but we appear to have lost the knack of playing poorly but still picking them up.

Looking at the glass half-full, the 39 goals conceded was the best performance for 5 years. Arteta's aim to tighten up our leaky defence has borne fruit. Indeed, the chief problem has not been conceding goals but scoring them. 55 is the lowest total product for over a decade and 1 less than last season. The disastrous opening third of the campaign saw us score only 10, which is less than a goal a game. Some of this was down to poor individual form - notably Aubameyang and Willian - but the chief cause was a lack of imagination and enterprise from the midfield until the pivotal home victory against Chelsea. What was encouraging about the final third, and in particular the last 5 games, was that we appeared to have discovered how to play against a low block, at least in the league. We appeared to have temporarily mislaid this ability in the Europa League semi-final against Villareal, though that loss was ultimately down to conceding two poor goals and picking up another unnecessary red card in the first leg. That latter moment pretty much marked the end of Dani Ceballos's stay at the club. Despite some flourishes along the way, he has proved incompatible, unlike his fellow Madrista, Martin Ødegaard.

The team changed for the better with the full emergence of Bukayo Saka, Emile Smith-Rowe and Gabriel Martinelli after Christmas. The temporary addition of Ødegaard also suggested an evolution towards a pacier, more incisive style of play, though whether he will return from Real Madrid is moot now that Zidane has left the Bernabeu (let's hope they want Ceballos more). However, too many familiar failings were still evident, from the slow build-ups at the back and self-inflicted wounds in defence and goal. Injuries to key players at inconvenient times also played a part in the season's ups and downs, though this simply highlighted the shallow options for certain positions, notably left back and goalkeeper. Kieran Tierney has emerged as a key player, but one prone to injuries; Thomas Partey has flattered to deceive, but probably should be allowed a season of adjustment; while Nicolas Pepé has managed to be both frustrating and decisive, across the season, within games and even within a single move. It's hard to believe that some of the loanees will ever don the jersey again, notably Torreira, Guendouzi and Kolasinac, but there are promising signs in the development of Joe Willock and Ainsley Maitland-Niles.

Despite his rehabilitation and flexibility, Granit Xhaka's days appear numbered. He isn't going to play any faster so a move to a more sedate league looks likely. One of Aubameyang and Lacazette will probably depart and there are strong rumours about Hector Bellerin and Bernd Leno. With David Luiz already out the door, you'd expect William Saliba to finally be brought "home". He may still be raw in Arteta's eyes, but it's obvious we have to invest now in youth and pace, rather than providing a safe haven for the tired and bewildered (hopefully Willian is on his way too). There's a real sense of a changing of the guard at the moment, though how feasible it will be for the club to enact the sort of squad overhaul Arteta needs is uncertain, given constraints on money, the continuing disruption of the pandemic and the complication of the European Championship. It's clear that Stan Kroenke has no intention of selling the club, but this doesn't mean he plans to invest further. The whole point of the European Super League, at least from the perspective of those not funded by petrodollars, was to guarantee income so the bigger clubs could rein-in their spending and so generate profits. I suspect Edu and Arteta are going to have to be imaginative to get any business done this summer.