So Far, So Good

We're two-thirds of the way through the season so now is a good time to review Arsenal's progress. Broken into thirds, we managed 31 points over the first 12 games and 29 over the next 13. That might suggest a slight dropping off, but it's worth noting that the latter haul suffered from 2 points denied due to a VAR error in the home game against Brentford plus the inexplicable but entirely predictable defeat away at Everton. If justice had been served in that home game, and if we had managed to at least draw at Goodison Park, then we'd be on 32 points and 8 points ahead of Manchester City rather than 5. While losing to Sean Dyche in his first game in charge of the otherwise hapless Toffees always seemed fated, a feature of the season to date is that we've avoided some of the calamities against lower-half teams that have dogged us in recent years, such as at Southampton and Wolves. It's also worth noting that we won away at Brighton and Brentford, both very much upper-half teams now but tricky customers in the not-too-distant past, and of course we did the double over Spurs, who for all their obvious flaws are still fourth in the table.

Though we have the second-highest goals scored, after City, the more telling statistic is that we have the second-best goals conceded, after Newcastle United. 23 against is our best at this stage since the 2015-16 season when we finished second to Leicester City. If there's an augury in that, it is that the Foxes won the Premier League on a total of only 81 points. Since then, the title has been won on under 90 points only once. The reason I mention it is that after 25 games last season Manchester City had 63 points. Their current tally of 55 suggests that this will be a season in which the title will probably be won by a total of around 90. If City win all of their remaining games (including the one against us), they'll finish on 94. If we win 12 of our remaining 13 games, we'll finish on 96. Their erratic progress this season, plus Guardiola's focus on the Champions League, suggests they're unlikely to achieve that perfect run, so I think they'll finish in the high 80s. Arsenal's aim is therefore 10 wins from 13 games.

It's clear that the club's original target for the season was Champions League qualification, though they may have revised that upwards. Based on previous years, ending in fourth will probably take 67-70 points. As we now have 60, I think we can be confident that a placing finish is within our grasp. The Europa League will almost certainly be downgraded in strategic terms, given that the real prize in that competition is progress to the more prestigious UEFA league and the silverware hardly compares to the Premiership. I suspect most Arsenal fans will be perfectly happy if we exit in the round of 16 against Sporting Lisbon. The real danger of the Europa League is not fatigue but the possibility of a season-ending injury to a key player. In terms of who those players are, it's worth noting that you could probably list most of the first 11 now, so much have they excelled as a team. It's also worth noting how well the backups have performed. When Garbiel Jesus picked up his injury at the World Cup, many assumed Arsenal's season would nosedive, but Eddie Nketiah proved an impressive deputy in December and January. 

Equally impressive is that as other teams adapted to Arsenal's change in approach, with Nketiah's more box-poaching style allowing them to double-up on Saka and Martinelli, Mikel Arteta has tweaked the system by swapping Eddie with Leandro Trossard as a false 9, recreating the uncertainty for defenders that Jesus provided. This in turn emphasises how critical the transfer dealings over the January period were. Jorginho has already proven a bargain both by providing a decent if limited deputy for Thomas Partey (a crisper passer than Elneny but nowhere near as physically dominating as the Ghanaian international) and by banging in that crucial goal away at Villa Park off Emi Martinez's head, and Trossard looks like he will contribute a useful number of goals between now and the end of the season. Going further back, the summer arrivals of Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko were obviously crucial, as much for the injection of a winning mentality as for their tactical value. But the latter shouldn't be underestimated. After two seasons of relative tactical rigidity as Arteta and Edu sorted out the squad, we're now seeing an Arsenal who are not only fluid in their play but highly flexible in their positioning and rotation on the pitch. 

It should be no surprise that this has coincided with greater on-field discipline. So far, we have 39 yellows (14th highest) and are the only club to have not picked up a red card. To put this in context, we had the second highest number of reds last season (4) and ended with 60 yellows (13th highest). In other words, we're not committing fewers fouls but we are committing fewer stupid ones. That said, we are conceding more penalties than we're winning, 4 to 2 so far, but that appears to be more down to the reluctance of referees to penalise defenders taking out Bukayo Saka than anything else. The tactical and positional changes have also steered some of our card-magnets away from danger, for example by pushing Granit Xhaka into a more advanced midfield role where his lack of pace on the turn is less of a liability and his accurate passing can be more dangerous. This has been made possible by improvements in defence where the addition of William Saliba, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Zinchenko has given us genuine depth.

For me the standout player of the season so far has been Martin Ødegaard. The youthful captain has provided goals, assists and energy, but most of all he has speeded-up the team's passing. Arsenal are at their best when the ball is moved slickly. While the "low block" has become de rigeur for most teams defending against the Gunners, it has rarely proved wholly effective. The notorious goalless home draw against Newcastle United was down to time-wasting as much as solid defending, and Arsenal have only failed to score in two games: the game against the Magpies and the loss at Everton. While some of the goals scored by Arsenal have come from incisive wing play, many of the match-winners have been the result of incisive passing into the box. The midweek 4-0 defeat of Everton at the Emirates Stadium was illustrative, with Saka's opener coming from a short forward pass into a channel of space, before a second was snaffled by the winger with a smart tackle that teed up Martinelli for a routine finish. The two goals in the second half came from the wings once Everton tired, Arsenal ending with 73% possession.

What this highlights is that Arsenal have enough tools in the box (plan Bs, if you prefer) to usually find a way of scoring, and that is down to the variety and quality of their approach players, not only Ødegaard, Saka and Martinelli but Xhaka and Zinchenko as well. And with 11 clean sheets (second only to Newcastle's 12), that means they usually win the game. Interestingly, most of those clean sheets have come away from home, and three of them featured classic 1-0 wins, at Leeds, Chelsea and Leicester. What stands out in that sequence of results is Arsenal's growing ability to control the game. It started off with some good fortune at Elland Road in October, as Patrick Bamford missed a penalty and another spot-kick (and a red card for Gabriel) was overturned by VAR. But that was a pretty even game: 4 shots on target each and Arsenal shading possession at 53%. Against Chelsea in November, Arsenal had 56% possession and allowed the Blues only two shots (one on target). Against Leicester City it was 66% possession and the home side managed only 1 shot, which was off-target.

Can Arsenal win the league? Of course they can. Will they? Who knows. In previous years I'd have said that this was in the lap of the injury gods, though as we saw last season, the petering out of form can also afflict a relatively young side at the business end of the season. This year I'm more optimistic because I think we can cope with injuries better, even if the solutions may necessarily be a little makeshift, and because I suspect the adrenaline and momentum of a positive season to date should be enough to get us over the finishing line in good shape. While the 5 points in the bag at this stage are very useful, the decisive factors come May could turn out to be Manchester City's distractions in Europe and the FA Cup, and the Arsenal squad's hunger. Even if they fall short, their youth and steady improvement bodes well for the coming years. The one fly in the ointment is that while other large clubs are clearly in transition (Liverpool and Chelsea, but maybe also City if Guardiola leaves after winning the Champions' League), it looks like Manchester United may be ahead of schedule and are still in with a shout this season.