Nearly Men

Around this time last year I noted that Spurs fans had happily willed their team to sacrifice a Champions League place in order to ensure that defeat against Manchester City would prevent Arsenal winning the domestic title. Their reward was participation in the Europa League instead, which in the event led them to win their first trophy in 17 years, while finishing immediately above the relegation places in the Premier League, thereby qualifying for next season's Champions League. It's a funny old game and no mistake, mate. Daniel Levy's decision (for it will have been his alone) that Ange Postecoglu should be sacked as Tottenham manager ironically reflects the coping machanism of many Arsenal fans: the odd bit of silverware doesn't really matter (the 2020 FA Cup coming in Mikel Arteta's first season was only ever considered an appetiser). What does matter is being able to compete for, and hopefully win, either of the big two: the Premier League or the Champions League. Coming second in the former and exiting to the eventual winners of the latter in the semi-finals is objectively a good season, even if pot-less, but it also raises a number of what-ifs, not least what if Merino's goal in the PSG first leg wasn't offside and what if Saka had scored a second in the return leg.

Nobody would deny that Arsenal needed to buy a top-end striker last summer, but equally few would claim that their failure was down to a perverse belief that they didn't need one. It was purely about who was available. If Arsenal can be criticised, it is that they missed the opportunity to sign the promising Alexander Isak in 2022, preferring to opt for the more seasoned Gabriel Jesus. This wasn't down to price, despite the impact of Saudi money at Newcastle, as the difference in headline cost was reportedly only £10 million. The more likely explanation is a combination of the Swede's relative inexperience and Arteta's familiarity with the Brazilian. That conservative decision hasn't worked out, largely due to Jesus's long spells of injury, and you have to suspect that he won't be more than a backup centre forward in future, if only because his career strike-rate (roughly 1 goal in 3 games) is simply not at the truly elite level (better than 1 in 2). Eddie Nketiah's sale last summer was a risk, with no replacement coming in, requiring first Kai Havertz and then Mikel Merino to take over striker duties once Jesus's season was ended by an ACL injury.

Arteta has done a good job building the squad over the last 5 seasons but he has been unlucky in terms of transfer timing - who is available when - and injury to key players. If nothing else, he has proven his ability as a manager in having to adapt the team to the available resources. But there is a sense that he really has to get it right this summer up-front. To compound matters, he has to do so with a new Sporting Director, Andrea Berta, and at a time when a lot of other elite clubs are looking for reliable goal-scorers. Despite winning the Premier League, and Mohamed Salah picking up the Gold Boot, Liverpool aren't going to rely on Darwin Nunez. Manchester United clearly need at least two new attackers, and possibly three, while Newcastle United, Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa could all do with more firepower. Probably only Isak and Erling Haaland at Manchester City can be sure of their positions as first-choice stikers. While there are other parts of the Arsenal squad that will need replenishment or expansion, a top-class striker will be the sine qua non of this transfer window.

Arsenal have been derided as nearly men, but it's worth taking that criticism on the chin and asking just how near they are to finishing top in the Premier League. In the 2023-24 season they finished second on 89 points, with a goal tally of 91 scored and 29 conceded. Those are unquestionably title-winning numbers: Liverpool's for 2024-25 were 84, 86 and 41 respectively. Arsenal's problem was that in 2023-24 Manchester City finished 2 points ahead on the same goal difference (so yes, Spurs' capitulation did make a difference). This past season has seen a decline in the numbers: 74 points, 69 scored and 30 conceded. Points per game dropped from 2.34 to 1.95, due to the number of draws increasing from 5 to 14. Defeats actually fell from 5 to 4. Broken down into thirds, Arsenal struggled in the first period (22, 21, 12), hit their stride in the second (31, 30, 10) and then struggled again in the final stretch (21, 18, 12). The last of these was clearly the result of injuries to key players, while the first saw the PGMOL test their new guidelines on delaying a restart exclusively on Arsenal players, which cost the team 4 points (Brighton at home and Manchester City away), and which they then seemed to forget about for the rest of the season. The overall impression is one of bad luck. 

How much is luck a factor? The two previous seasons saw Arsenal also finish second, but at a higher rate of points accumulation (2.21 and 2.34 per game) and consistency between the thirds. The problem was that Manchester City managed to finish a few points ahead on both occasions. In 2022-23 this was largely down to the head-to-heads, when City won both, while in 2023-24 it was down to Arsenal losing at home to Aston Villa having taken a net 3 points from the head-to-heads. Arsenal were clearly improving and many expected them to take the final step this season, not least when City went into free-fall before last Christmas. That they didn't is down to a lack of goals scored. The defence is the best in the country and the midfield one of the best. There have been concerns over a lack of creativity against low blocks, but in reality this reflects the issue at centre forward rather than Martin Ødegaard's poor form or the lack of a top-quality backup to Bukayo Saka. Despite not always being clinical, Jesus's movement helped open up attacking channels for the midfield, whereas Havertz, and latterly Merino, offer a more predictable target man. Arsenal need a striker who can dominate one-on-one but also a player who is mobile enough to unsettle the opposing back line.

In contrast, Liverpool were fortunate this season is not being so badly disrupted by injuries, having a largely settled squad, and in having Mohamed Salah in the form of his life. Their goals have mostly come from wide attackers and midfield while their defence, though second best to Arsenal, conceded only 2 fewer than Chelsea who finished fourth. You need a bit of luck to win a cup competition (Spurs managed 1 shot on target in the Europa League final), but what you need to win a league is an absence of bad luck. Arsenal's wide attackers have been hampered by injury, while the central midfield has yielded few goals largely because the players earmarked to provide bursts into the box, Havertz and Merino, have had to deputise at centre forward. Declan Rice has proved himself the English game's leading all-rounder, but it's a bit much to expect him to score a hatful of goals as well as covering every blade of grass between the penalty areas. We all know what the missing piece of the jigsaw is; we now just need to go out and buy it.