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Friday, 26 May 2023

Should We Repair Our Sewers?

It's not obvious that we should repair our sewers and leaking water pipes, and not because of any scepticism over the impact of twenty years of neglect or disagreement over who should "pay" for the work. What is required for investment in the public fabric is not money but real resources: labour and materials. As Keynes put it, "Anything we can actually do, we can afford". If those resources are not available, the money buys nothing. This means that the key question for public investment is not "How will we pay for it?" but where will those resources come from? In practice (for tasks of significant scale) this means what else will we forgo. That foregoing might be limited to the public sector (e.g. we upgrade the sewers instead of building new hospitals), or it might be concentrated in the private sector (e.g. a moratorium on private housebuilding), so we effectively transfer resources and thereby grow the public sector's share of GDP. Framing the debate as one of money ("There is no magic money tree" etc), and implying that money is somehow a real thing that is naturally limited (reification), is a way of avoiding this choice and thus simply a way of advocating the status quo.

Feudalism recognised the categorical difference between resources allocated to specific tasks (e.g. the corvée) and resources that could be exchanged (whether via money or barter is immaterial). In a pre-market society where money was in short supply, because it wasn't generally needed as a means of exchange and specie was naturally limited, "public works" - i.e. infrastructure of general utility, such as roads or bridges - could only be effected through such an allocation of real resources. This was possible because the seasonality of agriculture meant that there were predictable periods of labour time available for non-subsistence activities. Industrialisation, or more precisely proletarianisation, did away with the corvée and other feudal remnants through the move to wage labour. This also meant that resources for public works were now part of the market system, which in turn meant competition with private interests for labour and materials. The important point here is that the expansion of the market has always been in tension with public works. The result was that industrialisation and its consequent social ills produced not the Nightwatchman State but an expansion of government with a central role in appropriating and allocating real resources.


This not only addressed real needs but it opened up a new site for exploitation in the interface between government and private contractors and would create a new class of public assets ripe for rent-seeking. There were three notable trends in public administration over the course of the twentieth century in response to this. The first was the national or regional consolidation of many public services, such as health and utlities. The second was the gradual conversion of government from a primary employer of real resources to a contracting party of private suppliers through privatisation and outsourcing, which meant both the creation of de facto monopolies in the private sector (e.g. water and rail) and increasingly the limitation of local government graft to property development, i.e. exploiting the public asset of planning approval. The third trend was the move to more regressive taxation as working class incomes grew, which was consolidated in the 1980s both nationally (the increase in VAT and cuts in top-tier income tax) and locally (the introduction first of a poll tax and subsequently a household tax that hasn't kept pace with the inflation in high-end property values).

These three trends have meant that people today feel increasingly alienated from public services and regard local government as little more than a property developer that is unresponsive to local needs and vulnerable to graft. The first development has led to both falling levels of satisfaction and increasing antagonism towards the status quo, hence the renewed popularity of nationalisation, while the latter has led to growing disillusion with local authorities and the relative flourishing of independents and maverick parties, many focused on limiting housing development. While any individual "NIMBY" might be selfish and short-sighted, NIMBYism clearly reflects the tension that now exists between local democracy and local government. Meanwhile, the water companies have become national villains not simply because they have polluted our rivers and beaches with sewage but because they have come to symbolise the regressive legacy of Thatcherism in which the poor face disproportionately higher bills while the priority of the business is to deliver dividends to shareholders.

Repairing our water pipes and sewers is attractive for a number of reasons but three are worth focusing on in the context of the above. First, it would be a national programme, which would obviously open up the question of full nationalisation. Second, it would be democratic. All households could expect to benefit from lower water and sewerage bills and most people would consider the improved utility of clean beaches and rivers to be of value. Third, it would be a less contentious use of real resources than housebuilding, and more specifically of private housebuilding in suburban and exurban areas. However, unless there is a rebalancing between the public and private sectors, it would also mean denying real resources to other public works, such as public housebuilding in urban areas. Constructing inner-city council flats would be more popular than building on the green belt and is the only way in which we'll see any movement towards addressing under-supply, which is an issue of location and tenure more than capacity, and (eventually) a reduction in house price and rent rises, which Keir Starmer is now on record (if that means anything) as saying he wants to see.


It's worth noting that the UK public fabric in other respects is quite healthy. Contrary to the "private affluence and public squalor" trope of old, we have built a lot of new public works over the last forty years, from hospitals to the Elizabeth Line. But while governments since Thatcher can take credit for this, the legacy they have burdened society with is the regressive Thatcherite model of financing in forms such as PFI and privatisation, while some of the greatest successes have come when that model has failed so badly that renationalisation (or takeover by regional authorities) has proved unavoidable. The problems of the NHS, social care and poverty aren't due to a lack of buildings or infrastructure but to low wages restricting spending power and leaving vacancies unfilled. These really are areas where a magic money tree (i.e. money creation in the manner of QE but directed to social rather than financial assets) would work wonders. That said, there are obvious opportunities beyond sewers and council flats for public infrastructure investment, notably improvements to rail transport in the North of England and an accelerated transition to renewable energy. In sum, there's a lot that could be done but we need to recognise that this would entail a change in the relationship of public and private activity.

In other words, we need a comprehensive programme of investment in public works that would significantly expand the public sector. This can be done without shrinking the private sector by a comparable amount, but only if we expand the key resource of labour, which doesn't mean getting disability benefits claimants to harvest potatoes but encouraging migrant labour. Otherwise, we must transfer resources from the private to the public sector, which is not only anathema to anti-state Tories but also conflicts with Labour's somewhat incoherent commitment to growth through business expansion and raised productivity. Were we to increase migration, the demand for non-labour resources would also increase, however that ought to be an opportunity for import substitution in many areas. That in turn highlights how such a programme of public works would necessitate a formal industrial policy by which the state could intervene to direct capacity planning and even private investment. Is this politically feasible? The short answer is no. 

Not only has Labour made clear that it will be "fiscally responsible" (and if you think they'll change their tune in government you obviously don't understand who they are), but it has already indicated that its priority is to make Thatcherite taxation less obviously regressive, but not to otherwise change the model. Nationalisation has been ruled out while the suggestion that shareholders who have reaped decades of dividends should be expropriated without compensation is simply not up for discussion (at best you'll hear demands for "equity injections"). Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both talked of making the water companies foot the bill for repairs rather than the taxpayer, despite taxpayer funding being more progressive than additions to water bills. If recent history is any guide, the most likely outcome is an increase in charges to consumers obscured by new, more stringent targets for repairs by the water companies and larger fines for spillages (though in practice with Ofwat being ever more reluctant to impose them).


This is not to say that a big plan won't be mooted, but that without a firm ideological underpinning (let's call it "socialism") a public works programme and industrial policy are both likely to be captured by capitalist interests, much as the previous attempts to repair the UK's fabric during the New Labour years were captured by the financial sector and business consultancies, and much as the Labour Party institutionally has been recaptured by business since 2019. The suggestion that the Labour leadership's priority is to revive social democracy, rather than restore the authority of the state and the credibility of the establishment, is laughable. The ultimate choice for Labour is not what gets done (Bevan's "The language of priorities is the religion of socialism" is not a statement that bears much scrutiny) but who gets to do it: the public sector or the private. So long as Labour prefer the latter, which is clear in everything from their burbling about "choice" in the NHS to the lack of substance in the proposed Great British Energy company, then the outcome will continue to fall short of popular demands. 

The sewage crisis is simply an appetiser (if you'll excuse the metaphor) for the main course of the housing crisis. The government-mandated moratorium on council housebuilding from the early-80s onwards represented the largest privatisation of the last half-century. It is often forgotten that privatisation means shifting provision from the public to the private sector, and not just the sale of public assets such as state-owned businesses or individual council houses. Insofar as the Conservative Party has ever managed to shrink the state, it is in this movement of housebuilding activity from a mix of public and private (almost 50/50 in the late-60s and early-70s) to exclusively private. Fixing the housing crisis requires a reversal of this, moving real resources from the inefficient building of car-oriented starter homes in the exurbs to building energy-efficient flats for social renting in cities. But it won't happen. There will be no moratorium on private building and what limited social housing is funded by the state will be parasitised by private developers. Stopping sewage leaks and spreading the cost of doing so over a decade of water bills is the limit of our ambition.

9 comments:

  1. «This can be done without shrinking the private sector by a comparable amount»

    I guess then that the middle classes have a human right to abundant and cheap home delivery drivers, Costa baristas, cleaners, shelf stackers, waiters, etc.; such human right means that their servants should not be redeployed in other work areas. Such human right I guess overrides the normal working of a capitalist economy, where workers can be moved from one work area to another with the incentive to higher wages.

    «but only if we expand the key resource of labour, which doesn't mean getting disability benefits claimants to harvest potatoes but encouraging migrant labour.»

    A lot of property owners and employers agree very much with this, and since 2016 immigration has indeed been booming, reaching the record level of 700,000 net new immigrants in 2022. Fortunately immigrants are not only cheap and docile, they alo don't take up much additional housing (or sewer capacity or medical services, etc.) as they can double-up indefinitely, boosting property valuations too. :-(

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    1. Some relevant quotes about a contrast of approaches:

      http://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/846
      B. De Mandeville "Essay on charity" (1724)
      «The Plenty and Cheapness of Provisions depends in a great measure on the Price and Value that is set upon this Labour, and consequently the Welfare of all Societies, even before they are tainted with Foreign Luxury, requires that it should be perform’d by such of their Members as in the first Place are sturdy and robust and never used to Ease or Idleness, and in the second, soon contented as to the necessaries of Life; such as are glad to take up with the coursest Manufacture in every thing they wear, and in their Diet have no other aim than to feed their Bodies when their Stomachs prompt them to eat, and with little regard to Taste or Relish, refuse no wholesome Nourishment that can be swallow’d when Men are Hungry, or ask any thing for their Thirst but to quench it. [...] If such People there must be, as no great Nation can be happy without vast Numbers of them, would not a Wise Legislature cultivate the Breed of them with all imaginable Care, and provide against their Scarcity as he would prevent the Scarcity of Provision it self?»

      https://www.economist.com/news/europe/21723123-more-needs-be-done-ensure-it-survives-immigration-changing-swedish-welfare
      «large-scale immigration is putting a strain on Sweden’s welfare system. Sweden has long been admired for its blend of prosperity and social cohesion. Its model combines high taxes, generous welfare, collective bargaining, high educational standards and a reasonably free-market economy. The result is high living standards: the lowest wages, for example in hotels or restaurants, are far higher than minimum wages elsewhere in Europe says Marten Blix, a Swedish economist. Relative to other countries that have comparable data, Swedish men in manufacturing earn the highest minimum wage. [...] For decades Sweden consciously tried to get rid of low-skilled service jobs, says Karin Svanborg-Sjovall, of Timbro, a free-market think-tank. “We are fanatics about equality here,” she says. These jobs now need to come back to help newcomers."»

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  2. «moving real resources from the inefficient building of car-oriented starter homes in the exurbs to building energy-efficient flats for social renting in cities. But it won't happen. There will be no moratorium on private building»

    Well, those private sector luxury and starter homes sell well because the price of the land on which they are built doubles every 7-10 years, and can be bought on 20 times leverage, thanks to state commitment. So it will be hard to move real resources away from that by price signals alone like higher wages in other work areas, given it is so extraordinarily "productive".

    «and what limited social housing is funded by the state will be parasitised by private developers. Stopping sewage leaks and spreading the cost of doing so over a decade of water bills is the limit of our ambition.»

    Indeed, understanding english politics and economy is easy using one test: "what benefits the southern upper-middle and upper classes?"

    As to this I am not too optimistic about public sewage works: in the 19th century there was a big campaign (led by "The Times") against raising taxes to build public sewage works in "Great Stink" London and other cities. Also it would be a great "waste" of public money: if the same funds were devoted to buying BTL properties in the south-est of England, they would deliver huge profits to the government, enabling it to cut taxes, and thus would be far more productive than low-return choices like sewers, hospitals, schools, roads, etc. :-(

    http://www.bl.uk/learning/histcitizen/21cc/publichealth/sources/source17/economist.html
    «While it would seem that many people - from writers like Charles Dickens to social reformers like Henry Mayhew and civil servants like Edwin Chadwick - were in favour of sanitary reform, there were those who were against it. Often, it wasn't that there was opposition to the reform itself but, rather, to the cost or the effort involved in bringing it about.
    Some individuals, usually those with an economic interest in property such as landlords, objected to reform measures - including clean water for every dwelling - because of the cost involved to install them in all of their properties. [...]
    The Times newspaper went even further and campaigned against sanitary reform:
    "We prefer to take our chance with cholera and the rest than be bullied into health. There is nothing a man hates so much as being cleansed against his will, or having his floors swept, his walls whitewashed, his pet dung heaps cleared away, or his thatch forced to give way to slate, all at the command of a sort of sanitary bombaliff."»

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  3. «moving real resources from the inefficient building of car-oriented starter homes in the exurbs to building energy-efficient flats for social renting in cities. But it won't happen. [...] Stopping sewage leaks and spreading the cost of doing so over a decade of water bills is the limit of our ambition.»

    Over at "Stumbling and Mumbling" the blogger keeps mentioning Gwin's excellent question "What's the mechanism". What kind of mechanism can be imagined that will change the balance in politics from big-government intervention in favour of the interests of incumbents to less such interference with the markets to perhaps some support for the interests of the the lower classes? Without such a mechanism ambitions can be even more limited...

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  4. «NIMBYism clearly reflects the tension that now exists between local democracy and local government.»

    I think that it actually reflects the alliance between incumbents and national government:

    * NIMBYs are almost entirely incumbents in local properties, the property-less locals often are far from NIMBY, as they get priced out of their localities.

    * In the tory areas where NIMBYs proliferate property prices are booming because the national governments have been spending fantastic amounts of public money to attract jobs to them or to areas for which they are commuter basins.

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  5. «an expansion of government with a central role in appropriating and allocating real resources»

    My impression is that the small/big state "debate" is framed on both sides by right-wing interests to distract from a different topic (or two):

    * The state had always performed two very distinct roles: facilitator/enforcer of peaceful interaction among residents, and group-purchase agent for purchases decided by the majority of voters .

    * The role as group-purchase agent has indeed expanded significantly.

    The role as group-purchase agent has three issues:

    * An activist minority of voters may be able to take control of many purchasing decisions.

    * Some minority of residents will always feel that they are paying for purchasing decisions that benefit the majority or an "activist" minority but not them.

    * Powerful interests might be opposed to group purchases as they may be able to extract higher prices from multitude of individual purchasers.

    To some extent unifying the two roles of as it is mostly done presently seems to me not necessarily a great idea, as those roles involves conflicts of interest, but a consideration on how to best organize those roles gets lost in the small/big state "debate".

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  6. " DT, Twitter, 31st May 2023. "The point to remember is that that the pro-EU establishment abjectly failed after 1992 to build a popular consensus in support of the project, partly because they wouldn't take on the europhobic press & partly because the EU was always a convenient excuse."

    Yes, exactly. The New Labour insider books make clear that Blair, from 1997 onwards, had decided to to keep a low profile on Europe. Denis MacShane wrote, in International Affairs in late 2021, that he tried to get Blair to make speeches about Europe and Blair was clear that he wouldn't because of his fear of Murdoch.

    " .... even those advocating the long game are sketchy on how the change in public opinion will come about."

    It will only come about if people with the microphone say explicitly who lied and what the lies were. It means saying that lies were told aout FoM. That means saying that some powerful people (eg Murdoch) told explicit lies. This didn't happen in the last 20 years and is unlikely to happen in future.

    Guano

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  7. The fact that the majority of the PLP were unwilling to defend European FoM (and that Jonathan Freedland got angry in the Guardian about Corbyn defending FoM) should have been a big clue that Labour were not seriously going to campaign to defend membership of the EU.

    Guano

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  8. «That said, there are obvious opportunities beyond sewers and council flats for public infrastructure investment [...] a comprehensive programme of investment in public works that would significantly expand the public sector. This can be done without shrinking the private sector by a comparable amount, but only if we expand the key resource of labour, which doesn't mean getting disability benefits claimants to harvest potatoes but encouraging migrant labour.»

    As previously noted migrant labour has been extremely encouraged since 2016, with 2021 and 2022 reaching much higher levels of immigration than during EU membership with FoM, and here is an amusing article as to much «beyond sewers and council flats» the results have been:

    https://capx.co/thanks-to-migration-were-running-up-a-down-escalator-when-it-comes-to-housing/
    «Notionally, the Government still has a housebuilding target of almost 300,000 homes a year in England (not the UK as a whole). This target is based on a set of assumptions about underlying population growth, household formation and housing market trends, as well as net migration (to England) of 170,500 per annum. [...] Crunching the numbers using this approach suggests that we should have built around 461,000 homes in England in 2022 – 55% higher than the official target. Net migration (adjusted by a factor of 0.9 to reflect the number of migrants coming to England specifically) beyond that anticipated in the housing target pushed the total up by 163,000 homes. And overall, net migration accounted for 58% of total housebuilding need, pushing the need for new homes up by 235,000 compared to a ‘net zero migration’ scenario.
    In fact, we built just 177,810 new homes in England in 2022 [...] Migrants who come to England disproportionately live in London and the south-east, where economic opportunity and universities are concentrated. Yet net additions to the housing stock in those areas amounted to just 78,220 homes in the 2021-22 financial year
    [...] Moreover, we cannot look at 2022 in isolation. Everyone knows we have not been building enough houses for decades now. But even if we look at merely the last 10 years, the scale of the problem is daunting. Since 2013 we should have built around 3.46 million homes: 2.25 million to meet underlying demand pressures, and 1.2 million to cope with net migration (0.48 million as anticipated in the housing target, and then another 0.72 million). [...] In fact, we have built 1.52 million homes in that period. That leaves a shortfall of 1.94 million homes, with net migration in effect accounting for 79% of the deficit. [...] So the growth in the housing deficit since 2013 still amounts to around 1.35 million homes, with net migration accounting for 89% of the deficit. And of course, that deficit is intensely concentrated in London and the south-east.»

    Jam for property owners and employers is always today, for renters/upgraders and workers it is always tomorrow.

    Does anybody remember the story of the 1980s-1990s? Shutting down and offshoring big industries today, generous compensation for the redundant workers and big investment to create new high-wage jobs tomorrow? Tomorrow! Tomorrow! ...

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