Arsenalisation

Whether the departure of Raul Sanllehi is more of a financial and governance matter than one of football strategy will only become clear in time, but what we can say at this stage is that it marks another step towards Mikel Arteta being seen as a club manager rather than just a first team coach. Before Wenger departed, there was much talk about the need for a new collegiate structure, but the limitations of that became apparent with what appeared to be a number of power struggles, culminating in the departures first of Ivan Gazidis, then Sven Mislantat and now Sanllehi. I doubt Arteta is going to recreate Wenger's imperium, not least because the Technical Director role, which Arsenal were late to adopt but which is now standard in the game, is unlikely to disappear. The tripartite division between business operations, technical oversight and coaching appears intact, and there are signs that Edu and Arteta have a good working relationship in respect of transfers and squad development. One other conclusion we can draw is the Kroenkes aren't very good at organisational design.

What is less clear is whether the apparent plans to demote scouting will change with the departure of Don Raul's contacts book, though I doubt the initiative was driven solely by him. Edu clearly has his own contacts, not least in Brazil, and the Academy appears well-stocked under Per Mertesacker, so the more mundane explanation may simply be a desire to trim the scouting operation at a time when all elite clubs are relying more on data and video footage than bums on rickety seats in small stadia. As a club that has always publicly placed great store on evaluating a player's temperament and cultural fit, I doubt the personal touch will be dispensed with altogether. That said, there have been a few recruits in recent seasons who have never quite managed to gel for one reason or another, such as Guendouzi and Torreira, though I suspect this owes something to the lack of "Arsenalisation" in the recruitment process during the interregnum between Wenger and Arteta. Of course, there are always going to be some square pegs. What this shows is that matching players to systems is more art than science.

Defining Arteta's preferred system is difficult, both because this is the first occasion on which he had been in charge of a team and because he was obliged to work with the squad he inherited, but a couple of things have stood out. First, he clearly wants the team to be more adaptable within games, adjusting their shape and dynamic, particularly in the middle of the park, to counter or exploit the opposition. This was very evident in the FA Cup Final against Chelsea, despite the dollop of luck with red cards and opponent injuries. This does mark a departure from Wenger's approach of trusting the players' own initiative and focusing on maximising their strengths, but it should not be confused with Emery's reactive and ultimately pessimistic style. Arteta is more interested in prepared drills for key moments, rather than Wenger's "automatisms", but he is also closer to Guardiola's fluidity than Emery's rigidity. Second, he likes to attack down the flanks. For all the marked improvement in defence, it is out wide that the team has progressed the most, with the emergence of Tierney, Saka and Martinelli reflecting this.

Arteta took over halfway through the 2019-20 campaign, but his impact is best judged by looking (as I usually prefer) at the season broken into thirds. Over the final 13 games, Arsenal secured 25 points. If we look back over the last 10 seasons, a final-third haul of 25 or more has usually produced a top-four finish (the one exception was 2016-17 when we finished fifth, one point behind Liverpool). In other words, this is Champions League qualification form. That the team ended up in eighth position was less the result of damaging defeats to Brighton and Aston Villa during the run-in and more the consequence of occupying a poor position at the mid-point. After 19 games, which included Arteta's debut (an away draw against Bournemouth), we were in eleventh. It would have been nice to squeeze into fourth at the expense of Chelsea, but that would have taken at least another 10 points, which would have required the sort of form that if replicated through the season would have seen us crowned champions with over 100 points.

Though conventional wisdom has it that Arteta tightened up the defence at the expense of some attacking prowess, the breakdown by thirds shows that while we shipped 3 fewer goals compared to both the first and second thirds, we actually scored 7 more compared to both the earlier periods. Assuming Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang extends his contract, there is every reason to believe that Arsenal can return to the 70+ goal tally that usually distinguishes a top-four team. Who he'll play alongside is another matter. Lacazette has been less effective in Arteta's system because his advanced hold-up play is less relevant to an attacking focus in the wide areas, while his relative lack of pace means he doesn't tend to pick up loose balls. There are grounds to suspect that new-boy Willian will be given a false 9 role to link up play between the flanks and centre, allowing an extra body to drop into midfield (something Lacazette tries to do but isn't particularly good at). With Nketiah, Saka and Martinelli offering options both centre and wide, Lacazette may be squeezed out.

In midfield, Granit Xhaka has become the poster boy for Arteta's regime both on and off the pitch. Like others, I thought he had played his last game for the club when he walked off to boos in the home draw against Crystal Palace in late-October. That he has redeemed himself in the eyes of many, despite being the same Marmite footballer, indicates the degree to which the fans have accepted that his poor form and decision-making were consequences of Emery's system as much as his own limitations. Who he'll play with (I am assuming he'll stay), is up in the air. Ceballos is one player who has thrived under Arteta as a ball-carrying link between defence and attack, but his final third contribution is still poor: zero goals and only 2 assists in 24 league appearances. I suspect Real Madrid's claim that they won't sanction another loan is just negotiation, but I also suspect that Arsenal's preference is a loan rather than a purchase. Regardless of Ceballos, someone is coming in because the midfield needs more experienced central options, though whether it will be a defensive player, such as Thomas Partey, or a creative, such as Philippe Coutinho, may be down to opportunity more than design. It might even be Mesut Ozil.

Despite fine victories over Manchester United, Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea during Arteta's brief stint, the defence is still a work in progress. One or both of Sokratis and Kolasinac are likely to depart, being too one-dimensional, while I suspect any reasonable offer will be accepted for Mustafi, despite his rehabilitation. Much (probably too much) is being invested in William Saliba by the fans, but it makes sense to try and build a young backline that can be blended with more experienced heads, so my money's on Rob Holding sticking around along with Bellerin and Tierney. Emi Martinez proved a more than adequate deputy for Bernd Leno, though it's worth recalling that he had the benefit of an improved defence in front of him. The German was rightly voted runner-up player of the season by the fans, behind Aubameyang, and you have to suspect he will look even better next season assuming the defensive resilience continues to improve. If it comes to a choice, Arsenal would be wise to cash-in on Martinez now and let him enjoy his peak years as a number one with an FA Cup winner's medal to look back on. 

One thing that has pleased me about Arsenal under Arteta is that we have quickly become a team that frustrates top opponents, even if we're still capable of screwing-up against the smaller teams. Winning the FA Cup was hugely enjoyable, but so too was the schadenfreude of doing the cup final treble over Chelsea and denying Liverpool the possibility of finishing as league champions on 100 points. Literally frustrating Manchester City on the pitch during the semi-final, to the point that Guardiola had to vent about Arsenal's "off-pitch" behaviour to avoid criticising Arteta, was also fun. The one blot on the copybook was losing away to Mourinho's increasingly dull Spurs, but I suppose they no long count as a top team anyway. The objective for Arsenal next season is to reclaim that label and so far the signs are promising. Whether Sanllehi's departure proves a clearing of the air or the start of greater instability I frankly have no idea, but I feel a lot more confident that it will be the former with Arteta around.