tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post2483846521586232098..comments2024-03-17T00:10:44.022+00:00Comments on From Arse To Elbow: Wenger and WongaDavid Timoneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03568348438980023320noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-22408382813276165642014-05-24T00:57:38.603+01:002014-05-24T00:57:38.603+01:00Goal difference obviously correlates broadly with ...Goal difference obviously correlates broadly with league position, particularly at the top and bottom of the table, but what is interesting are the variances from that tendency. For example, Crystal Palace went from 20th place and a GD of -15 at the end of November to 11th place and a GD of -15 by May That's why Tony Pulis won Manager of the Season. He made them more efficient.<br /><br />Wenger publicly recommended Pulis for the award, despite their fractious history, because he recognised the ability to produce that extra efficiency. For a team near the bottom, this can add 9 places. For a team near the top, the swing is probably only 1 or 2 places, but that can be dramatic. Palace finished 15 points above 20th. We finished 7 points off 1st.David Timoneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03568348438980023320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-71248968904823268202014-05-23T18:01:14.746+01:002014-05-23T18:01:14.746+01:00I am a bit suspicious of this efficiency thing. I ...I am a bit suspicious of this efficiency thing. I think goal difference is the big thing. How about this for an alternative.<br /><br />If you're good enough to win the league, you'll have a few games with silly scores (in your favour). You'll lose occasionally, but not by much. So you'll have a good goal difference, and not much "efficiency" - all those wasted 5-0 wins. If you're only good enough to finish third or fourth, you're less likely to have any/as many silly scores in your favour. You're also likely to lose a few more times. <br /><br />An additional risk of the almost-but-not-quite-there contenders is that you might try to win against top sides, and risk a catastrophe. And if you're 2-0 down, you won't just go for damage limitation. So a reasonable club with no aspiration but to stay up might have a reasonable goal difference (Swansea/Southampton). A side with ideas above their station (S****) might have a worse goal difference than their position suggests.<br /><br />"Efficiency" could just be a nice way of saying you rarely win big, probably because you're not that good. Looking at the table, goal difference looks the big thing. <br /><br />Lukehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14014996272817759191noreply@blogger.com