tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post2038925053929421826..comments2024-03-17T00:10:44.022+00:00Comments on From Arse To Elbow: Phone HomeDavid Timoneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03568348438980023320noreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-29608923459697541552018-05-30T09:11:31.639+01:002018-05-30T09:11:31.639+01:00If the votes for Brexit and Trump were driven by r...If the votes for Brexit and Trump were driven by resentment at the way globalization undermines family ties, does that explain why anti-black racism is in decline while bigotry is surging against those ethnic minorities stereotyped as having very close-knit families (such as Muslims, or Hispanics in the United States)?George Cartyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12170378024031141482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-10976484481621120692018-05-24T11:03:50.513+01:002018-05-24T11:03:50.513+01:00Is there any evidence that actual Nissan workers –...Is there any evidence that actual Nissan workers – who given the factory's location (just off the A19) probably drive into work from a wide area, rather than being concentrated in the city of Sunderland – voted majority-Leave?George Cartyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12170378024031141482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-10929021920498555382018-05-24T11:03:02.492+01:002018-05-24T11:03:02.492+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.George Cartyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12170378024031141482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-4835580117804639742018-01-05T10:23:51.391+00:002018-01-05T10:23:51.391+00:00You're right. Thanks for the spot.You're right. Thanks for the spot.David Timoneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03568348438980023320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-2349985433745608322018-01-05T08:17:54.828+00:002018-01-05T08:17:54.828+00:00Shouldn't this post be included in your "...Shouldn't this post be included in your "Brexit" category?George Cartyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12170378024031141482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-20841014558199385582017-10-27T08:36:02.458+01:002017-10-27T08:36:02.458+01:00Why are Syrian refugees hated so much? Is it the ...Why are Syrian refugees hated so much? Is it the "rapists" angle (which is why I had my suspicions that those attackers in Cologne were actually shabiha), or is it due to fears that Daesh supporters are hiding among them?George Cartyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12170378024031141482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-42553636809816178712017-10-25T08:01:56.478+01:002017-10-25T08:01:56.478+01:00I live in the north-west of England, and in my exp...I live in the north-west of England, and in my experience Herbie is completely correct. It's a dirty secret rarely mentioned on Brexit blog discussions or in post-referendum analysis.<br /><br />When David Timpney writes, "I very much doubt that your average Brit feels strongly about Syrian refugees," well, sorry to break the news to you, David, but your average Brit in my neck of the woods hates Syrian refugees with passion. Hard to credit, I know, but it's true.<br /><br />If I had a pound for every time I have heard the canard that the EU allows in Syrian refuges, and one in Europe those refugees are free to move here, and isn't it disgraceful, I'd be a wealthy man.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-55427467593341267112017-06-30T19:41:08.706+01:002017-06-30T19:41:08.706+01:00Meant to add this is consistent, perhaps, with the...Meant to add this is consistent, perhaps, with the admittedly problematic (simplifications if nothing else) - Racism As Rent Seeking<br />Roback, Jennifer. Economic Inquiry; Huntington Beach 27.4 (Oct 1989): 661.Paul Langfordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16012158146472028122noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-59337065498991737342017-06-30T19:26:40.747+01:002017-06-30T19:26:40.747+01:00There's a lot to this. "frictions" f...There's a lot to this. "frictions" for economists equate to gap toothed high streets (I hail from nr Redcar, but lived away longer) and there's no easy fix. Two anecdotes (of which the plural surely must be data): Walking along Redcar high street, bagpipe player (for charity) echoing down the high street: pass by a Grandmother - why the F is a bagpiper here, should stay in F (add as many as you like) Scotland. Relative re Grenfell, "well it's the foreigners you see,they don't understand our ways, washing machines and things". Point being (obv) that there are plenty of bigots out there that would wind the clock back to perceived/imagined omnipotence of local folk...Paul Langfordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16012158146472028122noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-51872147623498509102017-05-06T16:09:49.879+01:002017-05-06T16:09:49.879+01:00I agree the Nissan workers are probably deluding t...I agree the Nissan workers are probably deluding themselves, but the psychological high of "taking back control" was just too strong.<br /><br />As for the deeper malaise, you are right that too much capital has been diverted to property and this has had a negative impact both on investment generally and the manufacturing sector specifically. David Timoneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03568348438980023320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-43690098271037196752017-05-06T16:03:12.648+01:002017-05-06T16:03:12.648+01:00Perhaps the fact that Nissan had earlier threatene...Perhaps the fact that Nissan had earlier threatened to quit Sunderland if the UK didn't join the Euro had made people there think it was a case of the boy crying wolf, but didn't they realize that Nissan set up in Sunderland precisely in order to produce for the EU market, and is virtually guaranteed to close in the event of hard Brexit?<br /><br />Is it not the case that many giant multinational firms pretty much have just three factories: one in the Americas, one in Europe and a third in the Far East?<br /><br />And isn't it the case that Britain was robbed of its economic sovereignty not by the EU, but by the rampant Home-Owner-Ism that has plagued Britain since the Thatcher era? This starved British firms of investment as any spare money was pumped into land rather than into productive investment, and also incentivised the destruction of most of the UK's Mittelstand-equivalent firms by asset strippers making windfall profits by converting their sites to residential use?George Cartyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12170378024031141482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-75615174665701846732017-05-06T15:32:51.587+01:002017-05-06T15:32:51.587+01:00I disagree. A lot of leave votes in former mining ...I disagree. A lot of leave votes in former mining areas reflected a desire to turn the clock back, and not just because of an ageing population. Despite the prominence given to Brussels and immigration by the media, the issue of sovereignty for many was essentially about economic sovereignty: taking back control of jobs rather than borders.<br /><br />It might not make much sense in terms of the likely outcome, given the way that trade works, but many seemed to think that going it alone gave a better chance of preserving jobs over the long run than staying in the EU and risking those jobs being transferred elsewhere. I think this, rather than a fear of Sharia law, explains why many Nissan workers on Wearside voted leave.David Timoneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03568348438980023320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-4506525923039143492017-05-06T14:29:29.206+01:002017-05-06T14:29:29.206+01:00The fact that the former mining communities which ...The fact that the former mining communities which you mention still voted heavily Leave in spite of fighting hard to save their jobs (really, attempting to bring down the government that wanted to close down their industry) is an argument against this hypothesis. George Cartyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12170378024031141482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-31299377434829040622017-05-06T14:24:03.891+01:002017-05-06T14:24:03.891+01:00Some parents will have voted to accept generous re...Some parents will have voted to accept generous redundancy terms in the 80s as old industries shut down. At the time, many rationalised this by assuming that their own circumstances were exceptional - e.g. "our factory is shutting but there's still the steel mill" etc. <br /><br />Some of those people will now look back on the decision and wonder if they did the right thing. Should they have fought harder to preserve jobs? Did their individual decision have a cascade effect on other employers in the area? One reason why mining communities fought hard against closures in the 80s was because there were usually few other employers nearby. Once the pit shut, they knew that many of the young would have to leave. David Timoneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03568348438980023320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-33984287923129145192017-05-06T14:02:41.501+01:002017-05-06T14:02:41.501+01:00... "blaming migrants for your town's dec...... "blaming migrants for your town's decline is one way of dealing with guilt over 'desertion' by your adult children"<br /><br />Don't understand that – why would parents feel like they were to blame for their being no decent jobs in their area for their children (such that they want to assuage that guilt by blaming immigrants)?George Cartyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12170378024031141482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-15532719302994746202017-01-16T22:59:47.803+00:002017-01-16T22:59:47.803+00:00Herbie, don't know how I missed your comment u...Herbie, don't know how I missed your comment upthread about living in Sheffield!<br /><br />Given that you mentioned that the nasty xenophobia you noticed was directed at Syrian refugees (mostly Muslims) rather than at EU migrants, it seems like the leave voters in your area were driven mainly by Islamophobia.<br /><br />Could Islamophobia in Sheffield have not just a racial component (which I'm guessing resulted mainly from the exposure of a Pakistani-dominated paedophile ring in nearby Rotherham) but also an ideological one (given that Sheffield is the Muslim-convert capital of the UK)?George Cartyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12170378024031141482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-28453480168372455102016-12-29T10:29:40.781+00:002016-12-29T10:29:40.781+00:00While a desire to crash house prices may not have ...While a desire to crash house prices may not have motivated the would-be movers themselves to vote Leave (as being younger and better-educated they would be more aware of the benefits of EU membership) it would be more likely to affect their less-educated parents. Note that although outright homeowners did vote majority-Leave, their Leave vote wasn't as heavy as that from those living in social housing.<br /><br />I'm not analysing the "core" Leave vote here, but rather the marginal voters – and while educated southern Tories did make a late swing towards Remain (these people could be the heaviest losers in a house price crash, while even homeowners in the non-metropolitan North would have less equity to lose) this was hugely outweighed by swings to Leave in the North East, South Wales and among Muslim voters. This swing was enough to clinch unexpected Leave victories in the first two, and while Remain did still win the Muslim vote, it was nowhere near the 90%+ landslide predicted (and perhaps the Muslim swing may have been enough to let Leave win in Bradford and Birmingham).George Cartyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12170378024031141482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-43799041334747206522016-12-28T14:12:29.821+00:002016-12-28T14:12:29.821+00:00For that to be true, you'd have to assume that...For that to be true, you'd have to assume that those people probably a) didn't already own property, b) were in the early stages of a career, and c) wanted to move to a big city. Problem is, the typical Leave voter was the opposite of all three: older, property-owning and anti-metropolitan. Some Leave voters may have fitted that profile, but I doubt they were a significant number.David Timoneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03568348438980023320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-58932479626456061382016-12-28T14:05:02.399+00:002016-12-28T14:05:02.399+00:00Could an alternative explanation for the geographi...Could an alternative explanation for the geographical distribution of the vote be the fact that people outside the big cities feel as though they are "locked out" of the better big-city job opportunities by the high price of big-city housing, and blame foreigners for these high housing costs? <br /><br />Much of what used to be council housing (reserved for citizens) is now in the hands of private landlords who let it out to the highest bidder, and immigrants from poor countries are often able to outbid natives because of their greater tolerance of overcrowding and substandard living conditions.<br /><br />It wouldn't surprise me if a significant number of people voted for Brexit precisely because they <i>hoped</i> for a house price crash... George Cartyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12170378024031141482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-8757547836647484382016-10-29T10:53:24.662+01:002016-10-29T10:53:24.662+01:00Mark, I wasn't trying to provide a comprehensi...Mark, I wasn't trying to provide a comprehensive explanation of people's motives for voting leave, merely suggesting that there was more to it than xenophobia. I'm also well aware of the pernicious effect of our press, having specifically addressed it in the run=up to the referendum, <a href="http://fromarsetoelbow.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/uppers-and-downers.html" rel="nofollow">here</a> and <a href="https://fromarsetoelbow.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/the-politics-of-hate.html" rel="nofollow">here</a>.<br /><br />If I was simply to say that Brexit is the result of newspaper-led racism, I would be guilty of living in the bubble of groupthink. What I tried to do in this post is look at other factors in play - not to downplay the role of the press or absolve bigots, but to consider whether the vote reflected fundamental, secular changes set in train in the 1980s.David Timoneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03568348438980023320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-16190589226514297222016-10-29T09:27:24.704+01:002016-10-29T09:27:24.704+01:00Hi David ... as other commentators have alluded to...Hi David ... as other commentators have alluded to....<br />I know countless people who voted Leave who very directly associated 'immigration' and 'The EU' with the Jungle camp and asylum seekers. There is CONSIDERABLE racism towards muslim immigrants and every news article about Calais would generate a torrent of anti-EU and anti-muslim abuse at the pub TV. My own mother in law though 'not a racist' (using a 1960's definition) voted leave because of 'all the immigrants on boats and in France coming to the UK. I like your ideas on 'abandonment by the youth' and think it may be relevant and provide a backstory to some of this tide of feeling, but also feel that you are not giving anywhere enough credit to the simple confounding of 'Muslim migrant' and EU by a large number of the population. I suggest you read the Express' for a solid week as you apear to be in a bit of a 'bubble'. The Express draws these direct and incorrect links daily. <br />MarkAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03967904769838823061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-15212453294107869362016-08-12T12:51:50.014+01:002016-08-12T12:51:50.014+01:00There was a step up in immigration in 1998, and th...There was a step up in immigration in 1998, and then a further step up in 2004, but this initial increase was even more London-centric, i.e. few people in small towns experienced it directly (the popular perception was influenced by media tales of asylum-seekers and the growing intolerance of benefit claimants of any kind). It's probably impossible to disaggregate this retrospectively, but my suspicion is the rise in concern over immigration in the late-90s owes more to projection than xenophobia or racism.David Timoneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03568348438980023320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-54745078293374174002016-08-11T13:07:02.105+01:002016-08-11T13:07:02.105+01:00"If this thesis is correct - that the concern..."If this thesis is correct - that the concern over the arrival of EU nationals during the last decade is actually resentment over the departure of native youth that started in the 80s and accelerated in the 90s - it helps to explain why concern over immigration mounts in the late-90s, 5 years before the accession of East European states to the EU in 2004."<br /><br />Wasn't there a big rise in non-EU immigration in the '90s, which was partially replaced by EU immigration after 2004? That would seem a far simpler explanation for the rise in anti-immigration sentiment then...George Cartyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12170378024031141482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-82540365002037335852016-07-27T14:45:38.061+01:002016-07-27T14:45:38.061+01:00Coincidentally, I just read an interesting post on...Coincidentally, I just read an interesting <a href="https://policysketchbook.wordpress.com/2016/07/27/austerity-and-brexit-in-england/" rel="nofollow">post</a> on the London/unLondon divide in terms of council spending cuts, which makes the point that the sociological boundary doesn't precisely match the geographical: "Havering is the most easterly London borough and surrounded on three sides by Essex. It is just a half hour’s drive from Newham, but a very different place."David Timoneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03568348438980023320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-8887940166351903402016-07-27T13:05:47.922+01:002016-07-27T13:05:47.922+01:00Maybe David is using traditional counties rather t...Maybe David is using traditional counties rather than administrative divisions? (Igor certainly is when he puts Middlesbrough in Yorkshire.)George Cartyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12170378024031141482noreply@blogger.com