tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post9200862677222539377..comments2024-03-17T00:10:44.022+00:00Comments on From Arse To Elbow: Executive CompetenceDavid Timoneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03568348438980023320noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-38566286912730848432015-05-31T12:34:59.060+01:002015-05-31T12:34:59.060+01:00I think you are fetishising elections and not focu...I think you are fetishising elections and not focusing enough on peoples everyday mentality.<br /><br />Let us be sober for a moment.<br /><br />There are many intersections that decide an individuals vote, it is a product of background, history, culture, personal circumstances etc etc. But if we were to put a weighting on the various factors then the influence of the media would figure very highly for certain sections of the population.<br /><br />Therefore many people are simply products of the tabloid press and when all said and done are pretty much brainwashed.<br /><br />When we say we are free thinking individuals we are indulging in a form of self delusion. I think to break from self delusion is a difficult thing to achieve but you can only start by admitting your self delusion.<br /><br />I will start the session, my name is Herbie and I am brainwashed.<br /><br />Herbie Kills Childrennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-11286089701474130382015-05-29T12:22:29.057+01:002015-05-29T12:22:29.057+01:00Oh, I'm not suggesting that the current Tories...Oh, I'm not suggesting that the current Tories represent traditional conservatism, just that some of electorate still perceive them that way, an image that has been enhanced by the presence of so many Old Etonians at the top level of the party. The strong showing of the Tories among the elderly is undoubtedly due to the persistence of deferential thinking and the fear of change.Igor Belanovnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-79375887544100524302015-05-29T10:54:13.870+01:002015-05-29T10:54:13.870+01:00The Tories are keen to accelerate the vote because...The Tories are keen to accelerate the vote because they realise that any delay will be damaging to inward investment. UK growth looks like it's heading down again, while the EU looks like it is starting to motor (the resolution of the Greece crisis might turbo-boost this trend). I don't think that domestic fiscal policy has much bearing on the timing.David Timoneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03568348438980023320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-8185582811383012772015-05-29T10:47:50.046+01:002015-05-29T10:47:50.046+01:00I think you're right about Blair's aspirat...I think you're right about Blair's aspiration towards a technocratic elite, but the illusion of control was being stripped away well ahead of 2008: arguably as early as 2001 (the public dissastisfaction with NHS funding), and certainly by the Iraq debacle of 2003. The problem with neoliberal managerialism is that it must pretend that all problems are tractable, because problem-solving is its USP. This bumps up against reality.<br /><br />As you say, traditional conservatism can claim authority on the basis of "leave well alone" - i.e. the pessimistic acceptance that much is intractable ("the poor are always with us" etc) and the best we can do is not make it any worse - however it is notable how much the current Tory party have been seduced by the same neoliberal delusion: witness the "Maosim" of Gove and IDS in the last government, and the aggressive reforms outlined in the Queen's Speech this week.David Timoneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03568348438980023320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-6209821474012409532015-05-29T09:52:05.809+01:002015-05-29T09:52:05.809+01:00Does the timing of the EU referendum matter? Assum...Does the timing of the EU referendum matter? Assume Gideon goes again for a fiscal repression expansion strategy timed around the electoral cycle. Should the Tories go for May 16 or May 17 for the vote? Hugo Evanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12705056750207255618noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-73745743369752847702015-05-29T08:55:00.210+01:002015-05-29T08:55:00.210+01:00I suspect the EU referendum will benefit the Torie...I suspect the EU referendum will benefit the Tories by drawing a line under the issue, and I think they will be able to adapt to the result either way. Given that the question is effectively going to be whether to approve the erosion of rights and benefits that Cameron negotiates away or to leave the EU altogether, the issue is basically one of Tories versus UKIP and merely demonstrates how powerless the rest of us are.Igor Belanovnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-42755495948747786302015-05-29T08:46:31.412+01:002015-05-29T08:46:31.412+01:00I actually think that the Tory reputation for comp...I actually think that the Tory reputation for competence, whether it affects voting or not, is driven by old-fashioned conservatism, or deference to the elite. This seems to have become more important again as the Tories have become posher since the Thatcher/Major era, and crucial in the ridiculous advantage in popularity that Cameron had over Ed Miliband. As you said, many people vote because it is expected of them and, in the absence of any other positive motivation, have often sided with their 'natural betters'. Working-class Toryism still has plenty of legs in it yet.<br /><br />In that lies the essential failure of 'New Labour'. I think Blair was trying to create an alternative elite based on technocratic managerialism, with the idea of 'what works' being paramount. Given that 'what works' is as nebulous an idea as 'competence', this was always going to be treading on thin ice. When the illusion of control is stripped away (the financial crisis) and issues that are judged more on vague perception and panic than evidence achieve prominence (immigration), then there is no other sense of loyalty or commitment that will hold on to voters other than tradition and fear of the enemy. The ironic thing has been that the people who have stayed loyal to Labour from 1992 to 2015 have been the kind of core voters that the Blairites have held in contempt. Igor Belanovnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-84296391831275536922015-05-28T22:19:36.108+01:002015-05-28T22:19:36.108+01:00I doubt the Tory party will split over the EU, or ...I doubt the Tory party will split over the EU, or at least not in a way that damages its electoral prospects. Splits tend to occur over binary issues - home rule for Ireland, tariff reform etc - not ones where there is a range of possible outcomes. <br />There is a small core of nutters for whom it is a point of principle, but for most on the Tory right it is simply a matter of maximising advantage: the spirit of this revanche derives from Thatcher's "rebate", not the 1975 decision. The pivotal issue will be preserving the City's privileges. If this is achieved, everything else (sovereignty, red tape, benefits) can be finessed.<br /><br />I can't really recommend any of the Labour leadership candidates: they're all much of a muchness. Burnham needs to grow a backbone (see his stint as Health Secretary), Cooper is a bigger thug than hubby, Kendall is a parody Blairite, and Creagh is a careerist blank (I've met her). If I had a vote, I'd probably plump for Burnham, just because he gave a shit about Hillsborough.<br /><br />That's why I think they should leave Harman as interim and defer a decision till after the EU referendum dust settles in 2017. Labour needs to focus now on rebuilding a popular party from the ground up, both to evolve a credible narrative and establish the resources needed to get the vote out in future, and to provide organisational resilience. The Tory plan to "reform" the union levy is a clear and present danger. David Timoneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03568348438980023320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-58025135087244338232015-05-28T21:45:42.988+01:002015-05-28T21:45:42.988+01:00Some voting is driven by an active dislike, but I ...Some voting is driven by an active dislike, but I don't think most people actually feel that strongly. Many people vote out of a sense of civic duty, which means they are often expressing lukewarm support at best, or even trying to second guess the popular mood (not everyone votes rationally in their own interests, and some just want to be on the winning side). For them, nebulous ideas like competence do matter.David Timoneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03568348438980023320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-56002114100393584492015-05-28T20:41:09.568+01:002015-05-28T20:41:09.568+01:00You haven't mentioned in your analysis the cha...You haven't mentioned in your analysis the chance that the Tory Party may split over Europe during 2017 or after. It's possibly wishful thinking but I have high hopes for this scenario. Cameron gets a fig leaf from Europe, they win the EU referendum (stay in), the Tory right cry traitor and march off to join UKip or even another right or centre right party. Labour governs till 2050.<br /><br />Another issue. I'm thinking of registering as supporter of Labour to get a vote in the leadership race. Whats holding me back is I'm not a joiner and the £3 fee is a pint in a pub where I live (not in London). Can you recommend a candidate? There are all kinds of fractions and groups in the Labour party that I know nothing of. The press don't go into details just concentrate on personalities.<br /><br />I thought if in doubt go for Yvette Cooper, probably the sharpest knife in the draw. My doubts there was the Ed Balls factor. If Ed Balls turns up on Strictly Come Dancing he may yet make the transition to national treasure and even be a plus factor for Yvette. Stranger things have happened.<br /><br />Thanks in advance for any advice.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-89301123428288743602015-05-28T19:51:35.689+01:002015-05-28T19:51:35.689+01:00I think an awful lot of voting stems from people p...I think an awful lot of voting stems from people positioning themselves against others, rather than people choosing parties according to concepts like 'competence'. I think events were made easier for Blair not just because Tory 'competence' (on wider matters than just the economy) was shattered, but because after Black Wednesday the economy was recovering by conventional measures, and because immigration was not an issue. Thus Blair could sell himself without having to threaten the privileges of anyone apart from the utility companies, and could even display a pro-EU attitude as something of an advantage.<br />The era since the 'crash', on the other hand, has seen a constant attack from the right (including the Lib Dems since 2010) on the worst-off , with the intention of dividing working people as much as possible and keeping people in an attitude of every man for himself. Given that the 'structural trends' and contradictions of the economy only seem to be worsening, the Tories have already decided to show their glee in continuing their policies, with the sell-off of housing association property showing the way. Unfortunately, this style of governing has proved to be successful for them, and I can't see Labour clawing their way back much unless they create some kind of attitude of collective endeavour. I can only see them spending five years trying to do the opposite.Igor Belanovnoreply@blogger.com