tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post8532612535448312727..comments2024-03-17T00:10:44.022+00:00Comments on From Arse To Elbow: Brexit: From Three-legged Stool to Pogo-stickDavid Timoneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03568348438980023320noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-79996757017877323682017-01-21T11:00:34.788+00:002017-01-21T11:00:34.788+00:00The EU project was always going to hit the rocks a...The EU project was always going to hit the rocks as far as the UK is concerned and maybe it is fatally wounded, and was always destined to end this way. If by the EU project we mean a genuine United States of Europe. The truth is that the EU had gone as far as it could and still remain palatable to people fed on a daily diet of right wing populism and neo liberal policies. So what we have now is probably as far as EU integration can go in the current epoch. A sad statement of failure in my opinion.<br /><br />The idea that by going it alone we gain 'sovereignty' or get our country back is of course garbage on stilts. Look at the reaction to Corbyn's idea of changing public sector procurement rules to favour companies where the ratio between top and bottom is 20:1 (still an obscene gap by the way), "You can't do that because the rich will not invest in the nation!". So we have clearly not got anything back and this country, being a smaller and hence more dependent economic entity has now opened its legs to the rich and wealthy and said, "Do with us as you please".<br /><br />Britain is now a submissive sissy that must pander to the whims of every rich interest, getting your country back, shut the fuck up you racist morons!Herbie Destroys the Environmentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-45469597220367536952017-01-18T18:49:36.216+00:002017-01-18T18:49:36.216+00:00There has been little public outcry about the City...There has been little public outcry about the City's preponderant influence over UK economic policy after all this time, so I doubt it will be under too much of a threat. Plus, the diplomatic struggle over the terms of exit will allow the City to wrap itself in the flag and disguise its selfish aims. Igor Belanovnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-47517847016642032712017-01-18T11:10:35.116+00:002017-01-18T11:10:35.116+00:00One problem with Brexit is that it makes you yearn...One problem with Brexit is that it makes you yearn for Osborne's "rebalancing the economy" and Northern Powerhouse" even though it was PR guff.gastro georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-18271846515048933882017-01-18T10:25:55.880+00:002017-01-18T10:25:55.880+00:00I think that is why May & co are so keen to de...I think that is why May & co are so keen to deliver what they believe "the people" want, i.e. an end to free movement and the ECJ. Of course, this won't satisfy the tribunes of the people - the press - given the non-European basis to popular xenophobia and the antipathy to "meddling" judges generally. The irony is that in furthering the City, we are actually empowering a global elite rather than a national champion.David Timoneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03568348438980023320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-80966307861677969962017-01-18T00:35:44.909+00:002017-01-18T00:35:44.909+00:00In this story the city continues to rule the roost...In this story the city continues to rule the roost, because it remains in everyone's interest. But doesn't it get harder to sell this engine if growth to the wider population if public concessions must be made to protect it. Is it really business as usual for the city?Hugo Evanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12705056750207255618noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-34067885023829299402017-01-17T17:23:45.577+00:002017-01-17T17:23:45.577+00:00The hybrid strategy may not work, however May cert...The hybrid strategy may not work, however May certainly appears to be assuming that a fudge is possible, otherwise she would have announced the UK's intention to quit the customs union, along with the single market, today. I suspect her calculation is that pressure from big business on the EU27 will be enough to secure a compromise, whatever the legal fiction.<br /><br />There is a sort of precedent in the partial CU of the EU with Turkey, though I don't think this is really relevant for the UK given the difference in the economies and their political trajectories. A bespoke deal for specific industries, and probably time-limited too, strikes me as more likely.David Timoneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03568348438980023320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-60954983503363789482017-01-17T16:53:47.847+00:002017-01-17T16:53:47.847+00:00I just read that a partial CU doesn't have leg...I just read that a partial CU doesn't have legs. Against WTO rules.<br /><br />And isn't the CU adjudicated by the ECJ, which is another Brexit red line?gastro georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-44348560336486029312017-01-17T16:37:44.791+00:002017-01-17T16:37:44.791+00:00To judge from May's speech today, the aim is a...To judge from May's speech today, the aim is another hybrid relationship in which systemically important industries that depend on pan-EU supply chains will remain within the scope of the CU, presumably by means of an industry-specific associate status. <br /><br />This would then allow the UK to negotiate independent trade deals for goods and services that fall outside this scope, which would in turn allow the Tories to claim they have "taken back control" of trade, even those these non-CU areas might turn out to be marginal to overall GVA.David Timoneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03568348438980023320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-74576416860236990552017-01-17T15:56:35.963+00:002017-01-17T15:56:35.963+00:00How would you get continuity outside of the Custom...How would you get continuity outside of the Customs Union? I guess you could maybe designate certain factories as bonded warehouses or analogous?gastro georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-16073204301196410612017-01-16T21:03:03.892+00:002017-01-16T21:03:03.892+00:00The aim will be to secure continuity with current ...The aim will be to secure continuity with current terms but outside the Customs Union. Given investment in existing EU-wide supply-chains for car components, this will make sense to both sides and to UK-based foreign manufacturers.<br /><br />Longer-term, some UK-based manufacture (for export to EU) will likely shift to the continent but this will coincide with building new production lines. For this reason, the deal May will get will be time-limited, probably in the order of 7-10 years.David Timoneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03568348438980023320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-27104175859667959032017-01-16T20:42:18.634+00:002017-01-16T20:42:18.634+00:00"Theresa May ... may also be able to secure m..."Theresa May ... may also be able to secure mutually-beneficial deals for the larger capitals (probably motor manufacturers and possibly pharma)."<br /><br />My question would be: if we leave the customs union, why would any car manufacturers stay? Surely JIT sub-assembly manufacture makes it impractical. I don't see a way to negotiate around this.<br />gastro georgenoreply@blogger.com