tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post2453329208912172329..comments2024-03-17T00:10:44.022+00:00Comments on From Arse To Elbow: That EU Vote - 2. ImmigrationDavid Timoneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03568348438980023320noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-78355897528842620542016-06-24T07:56:45.956+01:002016-06-24T07:56:45.956+01:00Deeply shocked. Very hard to believe. I was comple...Deeply shocked. Very hard to believe. I was completely wrong.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-41069139071327066572016-06-14T22:13:12.168+01:002016-06-14T22:13:12.168+01:00Few thoughts on the chance of a Brexit vote at thi...Few thoughts on the chance of a Brexit vote at this stage. Mainly so I have a record. It will be easy to look back from the result and re-interpret previous thinking.<br /><br />Still think it's very unlikely for Leave to win. I think a 45 percent vote for Leave is a maximum. It will be a shock for me if Leave win.<br /><br />There has been a lot of pro Leave media noise today. The Sun came out for Leave there was a lot of stuff in The Times, obviously Murdoch wants Leave. <br /><br />There have been a whole slew of polls putting Leave ahead in the last few days. Margins vary from 1 to 7 points. This is interpreted as a swing to Leave. The polls quote a sampling error related to sample size of a few percent, but there are other sources of error. For me the polls are still saying too close to call. <br /><br />Working out the percentage probability from the betting odds. Leave 40 percent chance Remain 60 percent chance. On this basis the chance of Leave has increased over the last week. <br /><br />The UK stock market fell about 2% today a large element of it supposedly on increased fears of Brexit. Global markets down. As ever many worries. Day one of a FOMC meeting. Yellen discussing a weakening US and World economy and trying to decide what if anything to do. <br /><br />Assuming a big slide to the status quo on the 23rd. Shy Remain voters and Leave voters chickening out on the day. Expecting a General Election type turnout of 65 percent. <br /><br />It will be hard to make sense of the noise from here on. Remain will try to generate a sense of panic. Media excited by a close race. I guess if there is a run of 4 or 5 polls with a margin of 10 points or more to Leave, may have to think again. <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-26339343770302130392016-06-14T19:20:11.202+01:002016-06-14T19:20:11.202+01:00I notice that Labour's deputy leader is helpin...I notice that Labour's deputy leader is helping the Leave campaign brilliantly by saying that free movement should effectively come to an end. These supposed 'pragmatists' are a hoot. Unable to locate any principles, they instead concede to their opponents' main argument. Igor Belanovnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-42294857192371350442016-06-14T18:38:20.430+01:002016-06-14T18:38:20.430+01:00Cameron has lost in the sense that a majority of T...Cameron has lost in the sense that a majority of Tories (curently 55/32 for Leave) have rejected his advice. Even if Remain win (which is still likely) he's toast. In fairness, he knew this was coming, hence decision to stand down before 2020.<br /><br />The positioning of Corbyn is being led by the liberal media, notably the Beeb and Grauniad. If Leave win, it's his fault; if Remain win narrowly, it's no thanks to him. The fact that Labour voters are pro-Remain (currently 55/35) is being buried beneath a narrative of flaky support and innate bigotry.David Timoneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03568348438980023320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5312853715123370916.post-73753935420979252932016-06-14T18:09:44.840+01:002016-06-14T18:09:44.840+01:00"While New Labour increased funding, it did s..."While New Labour increased funding, it did so in a manner that emphasised the difficulty of finding the money and the growing demand on public services, often by those of questionable merit. "Prudence" was the rhetorical precursor of "austerity", just as "rights and responsibilities" prefigured "strivers and skivers"."<br /><br />It was much much worse than this. Blair, with their incessant crackdowns on asylum seekers and immigration, although often bogus, legitimised racism, and it's been impossible to escape from that. As with Cameron, who's been beating the same drum, it's been almost impossible for Labour to argue that immigration isn't the core of the problems of the "forgotten" working class, when it's formed a normal part of the political discourse for almost twenty years. It's why Brexit campaign so heavily on it - because it's the one issue that really gets to traditional Labour voters.<br /><br />You can sense that Cameron thinks he's lost, because they are already trying to line up Corbyn as the fall guy.gastro georgenoreply@blogger.com